The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
For example, if shipping is delayed, it will be harder to get food into the store, so the store shelves will be bare, then food hoarded. Presumably this would lead to some (expensive) emergency plan being put into place to return the food delivery system back to the capability it had before.
A secondary effect might be that consumers will still be worried about the food supply, and so will continue hoarding and other atypical practices even after the original delivery capability has been restored.
Then a tertiary effect, maybe, is that while searching for hard-to-find food, people may put additional load on the fuel supply system, etc.
Considering what happens with a fairly minor event like a predicted snowstorm, which also only goes on for a few days, it seems as if a no-deal Brexit would be likely to show considerable economic damage, much more than the few percentage points predicted in the newspapers.
I don't think there has even been a serious attempt to estimate tertiary effects.
If those in charge of setting up such analysis had the wit to consult, rather than dismiss, experts, they would discover that analysis of a complex multi-dimensional interconnected non-linear system, subject to multiple disturbance, is futile. They call such analysis "Chaos Theory" for a good reason.
A simple example of unexpected consequences is the stoppage, in Summer 2018, to production of beer, fizzy drinks, muffins and threats to supply of poultry and pig meat when multiple Carbon Dioxide plants closed at the same time for maintenance.
That was one disturbance. The default legal position is that on 29th March UK loses multiple supply agreements and disturbs multiple supply chains. We would then discover the consequences but never fully analyse the causes and interconnections.
Predictions vary from "It's all project fear to concentrate the minds, so it will be 'all right on the night'", through "Britain - The Venezula of the North" to "Civil War".
I am to the right hand side of that spectrum (if there is "no deal").
I am no 'expert'. I have just stumbled across a few buzz words
by Bernard - Jul 16 25 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 14 11 comments
by ARGeezer - Jul 10 18 comments
by Oui - Jul 14
by eurogreen - Jul 8 8 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 10 24 comments
by gmoke - Jul 4 39 comments
by Oui - Jul 9 8 comments
by Bernard - Jul 1625 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 1411 comments
by Oui - Jul 14
by ARGeezer - Jul 1018 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 1024 comments
by Oui - Jul 98 comments
by eurogreen - Jul 88 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 532 comments
by gmoke - Jul 439 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 252 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 26106 comments
by Oui - Jun 219 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 2032 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jun 2013 comments
by gmoke - Jun 187 comments