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My question is whether the estimates of no-deal Brexit economic damages include second order effects.

For example, if shipping is delayed, it will be harder to get food into the store, so the store shelves will be bare, then food hoarded. Presumably this would lead to some (expensive) emergency plan being put into place to return the food delivery system back to the capability it had before.

A secondary effect might be that consumers will still be worried about the food supply, and so will continue hoarding and other atypical practices even after the original delivery capability has been restored.

Then a tertiary effect, maybe, is that while searching for hard-to-find food, people may put additional load on the fuel supply system, etc.

Considering what happens with a fairly minor event like a predicted snowstorm, which also only goes on for a few days, it seems as if a no-deal Brexit would be likely to show considerable economic damage, much more than the few percentage points predicted in the newspapers.

by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 03:36:16 PM EST

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