Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
For once I'm gonna disagree strongly with Fintan O'Toole. In fact, he skirts being condescendinly patronising.
 for starters, the English Civil war was hardly bloodless. I know it was in the mid 17th century, but he's the one who started there.

Moving forwards, from Peterloo (1819) onwards, the English Establishment have always ensured that they demonstrate an eagerness to use overwhelming violence against any threat of insurrection and will  be merciless at the first sign of trouble. The number of deaths may be small, 15 or so at Peterloo, only 1 when Churchill ordered troops to fire on strking miners in Tonypandy in 1910, no known deaths after the Battle of George Square in glasgow 1919 when tanks and cavalry were used. But on each and every occasion hundreds are left injured and thousands are traumatised. The lesson is learned ; step out of line and you and every one you know will suffer grievously.

Even the Battle of Orgreave in the 80s was a minor demonstration, but using modern disinformation techniques to sell a lie to to the public as to what actually happened and bolster the Establishment's case. Few were badly injured, but the television narrative sent the message intended.

At no point has a genuine revolution been attempted since the 1650s, but blood has been shed at every stage of establishing basic rights for working people.

However, we are here now, and fascists roam the streets unmolested. Left wingers may be arrested for staging lay down protests outside the Houses of Parliament, but violent hooligans seem to be free to harange and threaten legislators at their convenience.

And, as I've said, we haven't got to the end of the A50 process yet. The police have reported an uptick of guns and other weapons being smuggled into the UK, yet we have seen no increase in gun-related crime. All of which suggests that these groups are tooling up.

If brexit happens then we may have a period of calm, but if A50 is cancelled or things begin to fall apart after brexit, then I suspect we may be in for desperate times with a genuine possibility of an attempted coup.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 07:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A pitchfork is a suitable weapon in a mob action. No importing needed.
by asdf on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a gun with plenty of ammo is gonna be better

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think we'll see a coup if Brexit is cancelled. I don't think the fascists are numerous enough, organised enough, or professional enough to organise a coup - unless they're led by the armed forces. Which is possible, but perhaps not very likely - although given their hatred of Corbyn, I wouldn't want to bet money on it not happening if Corbyn wins a GE.

I think if Brexit goes ahead and things fall apart, then we might see a coup. In fact I suspect this has been the plan all along. The Tories do love their fascist dictatorships, and turning the UK into one would surely be a wet dream for them.

The thing that worries me is May's relatively insouciance. She said outright to Corbyn during PMQs "We will never let you govern" and that suggests there are backup plans. She certainly doesn't seem unduly stressed about the current Parliamentary resistance to her deal. And the criminal actions of the Tories suggest they see no prospect of any accountability or retribution.

But they could also just be idiots. Many of them clearly are.

Today's events suggest Parliament is serious about stopping No Deal, and it still seems unlikely that May's deal will get through. The latest rumour is that she's threatening a GE if the deal is voted down - to be held in April, which means No Deal would be the default.

Unfortunately for her the Henry VIII legislation enacted last year makes it possible for Parliament to vote to extend or revoke A50 without her approval, and without the debating cycle of a full bill.

It would be hilariously ironic if her insane power grab actually gave Parliament the tools to stop her insane Brexit plans.

The next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting.

But this is the UK in survival mode. The core problems - which are symbolised by the Tory party, and are based on an underlying geriatric nostalgia, instead of a progressive vision for the future - will still have to be solved even if Brexit is halted.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 10:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking Wikipedia, UK certainly has enough forces for a couple. But would the officer corps comply? Would the troops?

If armed forces are called out to handle protests and they disobey and join the protesters, the government is usually done for.

by fjallstrom on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 11:57:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the coup will be a strike against any polticians who are seen as standing against what the right wing desire.

A semi-coordinated strike against senior Labour politicians and remain tories. Decapitate the opposition and that is your coup there

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 06:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But aren't you agreeing with his central thesis that the: "British wrong to think revolutions are bloodless"? He doesn't think revolutions are, but he thinks many Brits share the illusion that they are...

He is warning against the complacency that Brexit is no big deal really, and that the British will muddle through as the always do with a minimum of fuss or violence.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 12:13:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and I'm saying that the Establishment already know that blood is shed even during "peaceful" evolution. They've made a ready habit of it for the last 200 years and they'll certainly be ready for more, down to the last drop of opposition blood. It's how they defended the Empire and it's how they'll defend their brexit.

And it is their brexit. The Establishment didn't like having the EU regulate (a bit) their nasty little scams, so when they say "taking back control", they don't mean the people of the UK any more than they mean Parliament (the recent recalcitrance of the backbenches is most unwelcome), they mean for themselves. From europe, from oversight; their own private low regulation tax haven.

And if Leave voters think this is about their unicorn and rainbow wish list, then they're going to be pretty disappointed

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 06:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to me that the thing about Brexit is that it's really, largely, a fight within the Establishment - they've weaponised racists and idiots, but really its a power struggle between various wings of the ruling classes.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 09:38:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to one learned friend it's a clash between two masonic bodies.
He sees the Trump/Clinton dichotomy in that same light.
At first blush it sounded like stock potboiler conspiracy but I am seeing a similar pattern emerging in the hive mind.
Two unnamed forces in a death match with 70% of society as collateral damage. Two forces whose greed for dominion of the lion's share of a shrinking global economy is laying waste to everything around, thrashing in throes to try and keep the old systems running one more profit cycle. .

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 10:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Seems to me that the thing about Brexit is that it's really, largely, a fight within the Establishment - they've weaponised racists and idiots, but really its a power struggle between various wings of the ruling classes."

So very true!

That's been my thesis all along in recent years. You have stated as such  in a brief comment.

It's been a storm gathering from de defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964. The social revolution of the 1960s, the year 1968, the hippies and sexual liberation ... a counterrevolution was about to happen. The Reagan/Bush years ... Newt Gingrich and Gov shutdown ... rise of then neocons and the luck of a Bush administration in a time of war .. the rise of might through Evangelical Christians ... terror, fear and Islamophobia ... populist parties tapping in the opportunity ... joint effort American and British conservatives attaining their goals of Brexit and a Trump presidency ... reaping profits for another eight years.

Democracy Unplugged, Regime Change and Project Alamo

Putting blame on Russia is just a big distraction ... running the playbook of the 1950s with Un-American Activities.

G W F and McCarthyism In A Digital Age - Part 1

Plenty of titles one can read and contemplate, an update of Warfare and Clausewitz ...

  • What Clausewitz Can Teach Us About War on Social Media - Military Tactics in the Age of Facebook [Foreign Affairs]
  • Cyber Wars:  A Paradigm Shift from Means to Ends [Min. of Defence, India]
  • Adapting Clausewitz to the Information Age: How Traditional News Media and Social Networking are Combining to Expand the Triangle [Naval War College]
  • Just found this from Leiden University - Perspectives on terrorism - recent online resources.

    Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

    by Oui on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 11:12:14 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    There is a lot to discover, for example, that changes in leadership of the USA are cosmetic. The leadership of the HUAC was always "bi-partisan". By definition, it's purpose remains to quash in the "body politic" any alternative ideology or purposes of its incorporation --as nation, as army, as a society-- to that professed by its commanders.

    So it has been since English plantation shareholders arrived in Virginia.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

    by Cat on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:52:14 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Which is where parallels between Brexiters and gilets jaunes fall flat. God alone knows if anyone weaponised the gilets jaunes. A little help from the ultra-right, no doubt, or from RT, the FN... Certainly some ectoplasmic blob spawned by FB algorithms. More certainly yet a decade of austerity tacked on the end of several decades of gradual job bleeding and loss of future prospects.

    But an intra-establishment struggle, not. The entire establishment is shitting itself. Even Jean-Luc Mélenchon looks uncomfortable.

    I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

    by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:23:51 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    That activity is known historically as "raising an army", to incorporate numbers of people by hook or crook. This mass of people, this "body," this "party," has one purpose. That purpose is obedience to a commander.

    Now, one asks oneself, "Self, what is my commander's purpose?"

    That activity is, not ironically, known to the common man as insubordination. The attitude of each one to incorporation and purposes of the body is not indeed a trivial feature being of it, the sense of belonging to a "body politic", a senseless object.

    Just so the "D" of DUP stands in for Democratic, next to Unionist. It had never before occurred to me to look into the abbreviation of itself.

    Appropriate future access to low-skilled labour in Northern Ireland is important, particularly given the potential for local firms to be placed at a competitive disadvantage to those in the Republic of Ireland where there are not similar labour market constraints.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:36:23 PM EST
    [ Parent ]


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