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I suspect Corbyn won't agree to vote for the deal in parliament, but might agree to put it to a referendum where the other option is Remain. So if Boris wants to get the deal through, he will have to agree an A.50 extension and organise a referendum and then get 50% for it. A tall order if the Brexit Party and ERG are campaigning against.

If he doesn't agree to do that, Parliament might nominate Corbyn for a few months to do the same thing. Remain would probably win with the Leave vote split between the deal and no deal. But the Lib Dems and some ex Tory and ex Labour MPs would have to get over their hatred of Corbyn first. Also a tall order.

Johnson's preferred strategy is probably a deal followed by a general election. Then he need only get 30% if the Lib Dems and Labour get 20-25% each and independents are wiped out. That would be achievable for him, but would the opposition be stupid/divided enough to give him an election?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 09:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:"would the opposition be stupid/divided enough to give him an election?"

What is worse for Jo Swinson: being seen as responsible for a no-deal Brexit or letting Corbyn become a caretaker PM?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 01:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the problem for Jo Swinson is that the LibDems have a long track record of "we'd happily work with Labour if only xxx was not in charge".

They didn't like Blair, they didn't like Brown, they didn't like Miliband and they don't like corbyn. Yet they happily sat next to Cameron, Osborne Duncan-shit etc for 5 years. You begin to suspect that their problem is not so much that they have a mild objection to Labour but that they have a too close affinity with Conservatism.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:43:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However divided the opposition, Corbyn controls enough votes to ensure that an election is his call.

So the question should be: is Corbyn stupid enough to give Johnson an election just when Johnson wants one?

Some might think that he is, but most would say that he isn't...

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 08:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is Corbyn has to threaten an election if Jo Swinson is to be made desperate enough to support him as PM.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 10:16:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would the Lib Dems fear an election? They can hope to slice chunks off Labour thanks to Remainer votes.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 11:19:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What the LibDems need to fear is a Brexit solution. They are a single issue anti-Brexit party. If the UK crashes out they can turn into the rejoin the EU party. Otherwise they'll collapse back to their base of people who are equally commited to having poor people die on the streets and feeling good about themselves.
by generic on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 01:20:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The LibDems would certainly like the electorate to believe that rationale, but the truth is that the LibDems are most likely to make gains from the Tories, whilst a lot of their MPs are actually under threat from demographic changes, especially the new defectors, even if they change seats to better prospects.

Swinson herself is almost certain to lose her seat in Parliament as the SNP are galloping ahead in her constituency as people tire of her anti-Labour games.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:49:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lib Dems might, but Jo Swinson is also likely to lose her seat to the SNP, and the leadership with it. So she has a personal interest in seeing Brexit resolved before an election - and to be seen as pivotal in resolving it...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 09:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do the Liberal Democrats view a second referendum? I know they favor just withdrawing the Article 50 notification, which Corbyn opposes. Some in Labour feel it would be irresponsible to have an early election unless there has first been a second referendum, as that would likely lead to another hung Parliament. But Corbyn has stated that the first order of business of a care taker regime should be organizing an early election. Is Corbyn being tactical here?

Might the compromise between Labour and the Liberal Democrats be that both agree to a second referendum before an early election? Is it feasible to hold either a referendum or an election before spring of 2020? Certainly it would be difficult to hold two elections before Jan 31, 2020. So it would seem necessary to ask for an extension until May or June. This would leave Corbyn as PM for a very long time indeed from the point of view of Swinson.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the problem with a second referendum before an election is that the government get to frame the question. So if TWBJ remains in place, don't expect a sympatheic choice.

Equally, the enabling legislation for a referendum calls for a 6 month campaigning period, whilst that for an election is only a few weeks.

All in all, an election makes the most sense, but the LibDems don't really want one cos Swinson will cease to be an MP

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The government only gets to frame the question if parliament lets them. If they legislate for a referendum, then they can set both the question, and the legal effects.

(This isn't rocket surgery. NZ almost always does its referenda like this, so the public knows exactly what it is voting for. And its a source of significant disquiet around the upcoming marijuana referendum that they're not doing that, and instead doing it UK style with executive-set wording and no legal effects)

by IdiotSavant on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:17:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah but when the majority party members fear the leader of the opposition more than they fear the economic and social collapse of their country, how are they supposed to reach agreement?
by asdf on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean the opposition party members?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 03:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, actually I meant everybody. It's like Corbyn is assumed to have some sort of super-power that will allow him to destroy the country if he gets to be PM.
by asdf on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 10:46:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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