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I suspect Corbyn won't agree to vote for the deal in parliament, but might agree to put it to a referendum where the other option is Remain. So if Boris wants to get the deal through, he will have to agree an A.50 extension and organise a referendum and then get 50% for it. A tall order if the Brexit Party and ERG are campaigning against.

If he doesn't agree to do that, Parliament might nominate Corbyn for a few months to do the same thing. Remain would probably win with the Leave vote split between the deal and no deal. But the Lib Dems and some ex Tory and ex Labour MPs would have to get over their hatred of Corbyn first. Also a tall order.

Johnson's preferred strategy is probably a deal followed by a general election. Then he need only get 30% if the Lib Dems and Labour get 20-25% each and independents are wiped out. That would be achievable for him, but would the opposition be stupid/divided enough to give him an election?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 09:54:37 PM EST
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