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I think here that TWBJ and Varadker have decided to take advantage of the DUP's strategic mistake about the Irish Se border and seize a victory (of sorts) from the jaws of defeat.

TWBJ had boxed himself in between a cast iron declaration that we will leave the EU and the various legal realities preventing it. Foster inadvertantly gave him a way out and he's taking it. I imagine that he wil be able to present the deal to the Commons as a choice between a deal and the continuation of chaos.

In order to get it to pass, TWBJ will require the votes of many Labour politicians to make up for the lack of DUP support as well as all the people he sacked and most of the ERG. So, all sorts of sweeteners and concessions will robably be thrown in. It may never be admitted but he may even consult Corbyn about what might work.

I hate the idea of leaving the EU, but I don't think the country can survive this impasse much longer. So, if we're gonna go, then some lukewarm halfway house will probably work for most people.

But it isn't a victory for the tories. Their end has already begun, their civil war will continue. Cameron thought he could settle the Cold war, but he was an idiot. It's a hot war now and will be untill they are destroyed.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 01:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arms are scarce. Which is a good thing.

But the peoples of the UK been beat down so long --1,000 years, I reckon--they don't know know which way's up. I might have mentioned.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 02:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect this isn't true, but I'd like to believe Varadkar and Barnier are just stringing Johnson along.

They know he has to ask for an extension if there's no deal by the 19th, and they also know that if he doesn't, a court or some other proxy will.

And that will be the end of Johnson. There will be a GE, and he will be removed.

So it makes sense to play along to create a pretence of congeniality, and then when the inevitable sticking point is found, to be very sad about the fact that clearly more time is needed.

With Johnson gone the most likely outcome is a very weak BINO or Remain - both of which are far more palatable to the EU than any Tory-organised deal.

Most likely wishful thinking. But wouldn't it be fun if it were true?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 02:32:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy endings. Doncha just love 'em?

But I do think Johnson's cartoon progress is ending with him seriously boxed in on all sides.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 03:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 03:28:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
bounded rationality. I might have mentioned.

Observers are bound by authoritarian obedience to rules and "norms". HRM BoJo ("Trump") is not.

Let us note here that there are exceedingly few "game theory" rationales in the innerboobs which admit this condition of play (although H. Simon does). Most of the litchitchure "democratized" by innerboob media studiously ignores motive apart from pecuniary interest ("incentive"). I might have mentioned.

Consequently, putative "opposition" to the authoritarian opponent of the day is "normally" ill-equipped to communicate properties of any alternative value ("product") than that vested in a designated "big *man". Transformation of independent variable requires transformation of boundaries, presumed to lie outside the scope of the game objective to which all players are bound.

What is that?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 03:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obviously, as the theory does not cover the game as currently played, the theory must change if it is to be relevant. This is significant mostly to game theorists. But can game theory move from bounded rationality to unbounded irrationality as easily as Trump and Johnson have, or at all.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 01:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's start with a simple principle.

GIVEN, play without rules is not a game, which theory of play best describes the role(s) of players.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 03:06:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with life is that there are few rules that are not routinely broken. That we all die currently seems to hold true. Some taxes are no longer inevitable - if you have enough money and don't count what you pay the tax lawyer as tax. So 'there will always be death and sales taxes'?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 03:24:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I detect a communication problem.

The proposition offered is play.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 04:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then game theory is irrelevant at the most complex levels.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 03:52:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As one might expect from Gödel's incompleteness theorem.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 03:59:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by das monde on Fri Oct 18th, 2019 at 09:28:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Authoritarians would love for all observers to be bound by authoritarian obedience to rules and norms, but, in practice, that never works. There are dissidents even in the most authoritarian societies, even if they are mostly silenced.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 03:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as I see it, the most likely to deviate from the norms are those at the top who believe that position, wealth and influence places them above the everyday mores of the herd.

Which solidifies into corruption, which breeds resentments which breeds extra repression which breeds revolution.

I think right now the Chinese are conducting an experiment into how successful 1984 type societies can be in sustaining an authoritarian hierarchy. An expanding economy helps but the price being paid is so high that the bills will surely cause an implosion. It's just a matter of when.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 07:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 11:03:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:"I hate the idea of leaving the EU, but I don't think the country can survive this impasse much longer. So, if we're gonna go, then some lukewarm halfway house will probably work for most people."

So long as Johnson is gone this could be some kind of acceptable solution. If Johnson remains it would be another example of totalitarians winning by turning up the tension to unbearable levels. But I don't live in England. One thing Johnson has in his favor is that he is able to do all he does with a grin on his face. That is so much better than the rage and angry contempt we so often see on Trump's face

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 05:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the idea that any win for TWBJ is a win for his leadership style that should be opposed at all times seems to be the current thinking from the Labour leadership. Especially as they point out that TWBJ seems ery willing to throw worker's rights and environmental protections out of the window in order to get a trade deal from Trump.

I think it all depends on what finally emerges from this "tunnel of negotiation".

I guess it all depends if this is a final throw of the Cummings game-theory dice for a showdown on a "shit deal vs no deal" in order to force an election or if this is indeed an honest attempt to get a deal by building bridges in Parliament (which he desperately needs to do if he's to get this passed).

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:39:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect Corbyn won't agree to vote for the deal in parliament, but might agree to put it to a referendum where the other option is Remain. So if Boris wants to get the deal through, he will have to agree an A.50 extension and organise a referendum and then get 50% for it. A tall order if the Brexit Party and ERG are campaigning against.

If he doesn't agree to do that, Parliament might nominate Corbyn for a few months to do the same thing. Remain would probably win with the Leave vote split between the deal and no deal. But the Lib Dems and some ex Tory and ex Labour MPs would have to get over their hatred of Corbyn first. Also a tall order.

Johnson's preferred strategy is probably a deal followed by a general election. Then he need only get 30% if the Lib Dems and Labour get 20-25% each and independents are wiped out. That would be achievable for him, but would the opposition be stupid/divided enough to give him an election?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 09:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:"would the opposition be stupid/divided enough to give him an election?"

What is worse for Jo Swinson: being seen as responsible for a no-deal Brexit or letting Corbyn become a caretaker PM?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 01:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the problem for Jo Swinson is that the LibDems have a long track record of "we'd happily work with Labour if only xxx was not in charge".

They didn't like Blair, they didn't like Brown, they didn't like Miliband and they don't like corbyn. Yet they happily sat next to Cameron, Osborne Duncan-shit etc for 5 years. You begin to suspect that their problem is not so much that they have a mild objection to Labour but that they have a too close affinity with Conservatism.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:43:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However divided the opposition, Corbyn controls enough votes to ensure that an election is his call.

So the question should be: is Corbyn stupid enough to give Johnson an election just when Johnson wants one?

Some might think that he is, but most would say that he isn't...

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 08:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is Corbyn has to threaten an election if Jo Swinson is to be made desperate enough to support him as PM.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 10:16:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would the Lib Dems fear an election? They can hope to slice chunks off Labour thanks to Remainer votes.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 11:19:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What the LibDems need to fear is a Brexit solution. They are a single issue anti-Brexit party. If the UK crashes out they can turn into the rejoin the EU party. Otherwise they'll collapse back to their base of people who are equally commited to having poor people die on the streets and feeling good about themselves.
by generic on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 01:20:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The LibDems would certainly like the electorate to believe that rationale, but the truth is that the LibDems are most likely to make gains from the Tories, whilst a lot of their MPs are actually under threat from demographic changes, especially the new defectors, even if they change seats to better prospects.

Swinson herself is almost certain to lose her seat in Parliament as the SNP are galloping ahead in her constituency as people tire of her anti-Labour games.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:49:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lib Dems might, but Jo Swinson is also likely to lose her seat to the SNP, and the leadership with it. So she has a personal interest in seeing Brexit resolved before an election - and to be seen as pivotal in resolving it...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 09:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do the Liberal Democrats view a second referendum? I know they favor just withdrawing the Article 50 notification, which Corbyn opposes. Some in Labour feel it would be irresponsible to have an early election unless there has first been a second referendum, as that would likely lead to another hung Parliament. But Corbyn has stated that the first order of business of a care taker regime should be organizing an early election. Is Corbyn being tactical here?

Might the compromise between Labour and the Liberal Democrats be that both agree to a second referendum before an early election? Is it feasible to hold either a referendum or an election before spring of 2020? Certainly it would be difficult to hold two elections before Jan 31, 2020. So it would seem necessary to ask for an extension until May or June. This would leave Corbyn as PM for a very long time indeed from the point of view of Swinson.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the problem with a second referendum before an election is that the government get to frame the question. So if TWBJ remains in place, don't expect a sympatheic choice.

Equally, the enabling legislation for a referendum calls for a 6 month campaigning period, whilst that for an election is only a few weeks.

All in all, an election makes the most sense, but the LibDems don't really want one cos Swinson will cease to be an MP

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The government only gets to frame the question if parliament lets them. If they legislate for a referendum, then they can set both the question, and the legal effects.

(This isn't rocket surgery. NZ almost always does its referenda like this, so the public knows exactly what it is voting for. And its a source of significant disquiet around the upcoming marijuana referendum that they're not doing that, and instead doing it UK style with executive-set wording and no legal effects)

by IdiotSavant on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:17:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah but when the majority party members fear the leader of the opposition more than they fear the economic and social collapse of their country, how are they supposed to reach agreement?
by asdf on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean the opposition party members?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 03:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, actually I meant everybody. It's like Corbyn is assumed to have some sort of super-power that will allow him to destroy the country if he gets to be PM.
by asdf on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 10:46:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:"I hate the idea of leaving the EU, but I don't think the country can survive this impasse much longer. So, if we're gonna go, then some lukewarm halfway house will probably work for most people."

Of all the rationales for letting some form of Brexit through, this is the one I hate the most. The idea that you can appease Brexiteers by throwing them the bone of a soft Brexit seems to me to be be even more delusional than the idea you could appease Hitler by letting him have the Sudetenland..

They will take the bone and demand more. Every minor and major problem will be blamed on remoaners and not having gotten a clean break from the EU. Brexiteers will not rest until the break is complete, and will be encouraged in their efforts by the half victory they have already achieved.

The other part of that rationale I hate is the idea that Brexiteers will take to violence and that a sort of low intensity civil war will break out - a sort of Northern Ireland comes to Britain.

Somehow the idea has taken hold that right wing violence as legitimate, effective, justifiable and impossible to resist while left wing violence is almost desirable as it enables the riot squads to let of some steam and do some recreational head bashing.

I'm sorry, this is tough and easy for an outsider to say, but the class system in the UK is THE problem. I am not normally a revolutionary type - being far too wedded to constitutional processes for change, but there is no easy way to say this: The UK is in the throes of a revolution and you either fight it or give way to fascism.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 12:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure it's the UK class system so much as the US class system.

The UK enthusiastically adopted the poisonous rhetoric and warped ethics of US neoliberal ideology. As we've seen over and over in other countries, the US is delighted when it can install so-called upper class fascist puppet regimes for resource stripping and the creation of disposably pliant cheap labour.

Brexit is the end game in that process for the UK. The plan seems to have been to spread the contagion elsewhere, but even though the EU has neoliberal issues of its own, it's still proving unexpectedly resilient against total colonisation.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 02:40:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I didn't say there will be chaos. I said there's chaos now. The UK is dying on its feet and not just because of the economic hit of brexit, but because politics in every other sphere has simply stopped.

One of the things that's happened is that the violence is happening now, Jo cox's murder was literally the first shot fired, not the last. Actual fascists march the streets now, in large gangs terrorizing neighbourhoods.

You're right, they won't be appeased by a soft brexit. But they know that what they get now is the most they will ever get, cos any actual leaving the EU will damage the UK terribly. However, equally, until we do leave, I don't see these people ever shutting up. And they have been convinced that there was a democratic will to leave and if wiser heads prevent that, it will genuinely damage concepts of democracy in this country for decades.

I honestly don' see a way out of the trap Cameron stupidly painted us into

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 02:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexiteers will not rest until the break is complete, and will be encouraged in their efforts by the half victory they have already achieved.
What makes you think they will stop after achieving Brexit? Given that Brexit will be an economic and social disaster, every single problem for the next century will be blamed on the remoaners.
by asdf on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 07:33:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And why it is an absolute must for the Leavers to put the blame on the EU.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 10:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because they are like children playing blame games?
Because they know a no deal Brexit will be a disaster and need to be able to blame it on someone else?
Because it fits in with their childish hatred of the EU in the first place?

It will be a hard sell though. EU has already granted two extensions for UK to get their act together and negotiated at least one Withdrawal Agreement, and shown willingness to grant/negotiate more.

Of course none of this will matter to hard core Brexiteers. For them hatred of the EU is axiomatic and anything the EU does to protect its interests after a no-deal Brexit will merely confirm their hatreds.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 08:34:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hate the idea of leaving the EU, but I don't think the country can survive this impasse much longer. So, if we're gonna go, then some lukewarm halfway house will probably work for most people.

Have you considered that any actual Brexit will be a SHAMEFUL CAPITULATION to the EU and a BETRAYAL OF THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE, and every move to stop Brexit is a crypto-leave conspiracy?

by generic on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 01:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 01:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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