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"Voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum".

Let's parse that.

92% of those who voted wanted an independent Catalan state.

8%% voted  no.

On a turnout of 43%.

Bearing in mind that the majority of those who didn't vote were not abstaining through indifference, but because they did not wish to legitimize the process by participating.

There is a strong plurality for Catalan independence, and a strong plurality for remaining in the Spanish republic. That doesn't make a clear-cut case for independence.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 11:24:48 AM EST
It is perhaps not very fair to ascribe a majority of the 57% of voters who didn't vote to a protest vote against the legitimacy of the vote, and therefore by implication, as being against Catalonian independence. For instance, turnout in the last Spanish general election was 66.5%. Even if we ascribe all the differential turnout to a protest vote, that adds only 23% to the no vote.

By my calculation this yields a 60:40 split in favour of independence.
            votes       diff. turnou  no votes+diff. turnout    %
yes            2,116,413    2,116,413                           59.84
no                104,760    1,315,827    1,420,587        40.16
Total voters    2,221,173           
electorate     5,400,000           
gen election    3,537,000           
diff. turnout    1,315,827           

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 01:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This assumes that people were no more motivated by the referendum than by a general election. I'll bet that there are plenty of people who voted in the referendum but not in the general election.

I'm not postulating that all the non-voters are Spanish republicans, but I reckon that the number of electors who are in favour of Catalan independence who didn't vote is pretty small.

Something like :
Independence  40%
Spain       40%
No strong preference 20%


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 01:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's also some pretty obvious turnout suppression from the Spanish regime - not just beating voters, but seizing ballot boxes and destroying votes. The fact that turnout was over 40% despite this massive state violence is quite incredible.
by IdiotSavant on Wed Oct 16th, 2019 at 02:29:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey, the US declared independence with less.
by rifek on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 08:47:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if we hadn't done that we would now have universal healthcare and a lot of other things that we don't have now.
by StillInTheWilderness on Wed Oct 16th, 2019 at 03:48:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The NHS, oh joy!
(However bad it's currently getting in the UK, it still gives better health outcomes for the overall population and is incredible value for the money)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Oct 16th, 2019 at 09:18:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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