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It is perhaps not very fair to ascribe a majority of the 57% of voters who didn't vote to a protest vote against the legitimacy of the vote, and therefore by implication, as being against Catalonian independence. For instance, turnout in the last Spanish general election was 66.5%. Even if we ascribe all the differential turnout to a protest vote, that adds only 23% to the no vote.

By my calculation this yields a 60:40 split in favour of independence.
            votes       diff. turnou  no votes+diff. turnout    %
yes            2,116,413    2,116,413                           59.84
no                104,760    1,315,827    1,420,587        40.16
Total voters    2,221,173           
electorate     5,400,000           
gen election    3,537,000           
diff. turnout    1,315,827           

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 01:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This assumes that people were no more motivated by the referendum than by a general election. I'll bet that there are plenty of people who voted in the referendum but not in the general election.

I'm not postulating that all the non-voters are Spanish republicans, but I reckon that the number of electors who are in favour of Catalan independence who didn't vote is pretty small.

Something like :
Independence  40%
Spain       40%
No strong preference 20%


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 15th, 2019 at 01:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's also some pretty obvious turnout suppression from the Spanish regime - not just beating voters, but seizing ballot boxes and destroying votes. The fact that turnout was over 40% despite this massive state violence is quite incredible.
by IdiotSavant on Wed Oct 16th, 2019 at 02:29:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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