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It perhaps confirms the 317 seats the Tories held in last Parliament. But in the marginals they need to win to obtain a majority, the BP will still be running, lowering Tory chances.

Since I don't believe Farage is doing this without a quid pro quo, Johnson will have to offer something spectacular to get the BP completely out of his hair. A measly peerage won't cut it.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 07:13:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you be a member of the House of Lords and European Parliament at the same time?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 08:05:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit will be delivered (Hark! The herald angels sing!) and Farage will cease to be an MEP and become Lord Farage of Beerswill.

Just an example of a bauble he could be offered. In fact, for him to really cement Johnson's future majority, a government agreement aka coalition would have to be on offer.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 08:16:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can a party with no MPs form part of a coalition? Boris could offer Farage the ambassadorship to the USA - thereby prompting the resignation of half the diplomatic service, thereby reducing costs... another Brexit Bonus to add to the NHS!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 09:05:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't saying that I thought an electoral agreement/ coalition was in any way likely. Particularly as it would prompt a greater split in the Tory party between right wing and centre-rightists.

It's also quite possible that the BP deflates like a punctured tyre and gives up completely.

However, if they do field candidates in seats Johnson absolutely needs to win, they'll arguably be reducing his chances.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 09:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With the Tories almost certain to lose seats in Scotland, they have to do more than just hold their current seats in England - they have to win some seats currently held by Labour or the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are more likely to to hold theirs now that Boris is so openly allied to Farage and thereby losing some Remainer, "one nation", and moderate Tory voters to the Lib Dems.

Farage's decision probably also improves Labour's chances of holding seats in northern England. A vote for Farage is now no longer a protest vote - it is a vote for the conservative incumbent Boris - and the Conservatives are seen as responsible for much of Northern England's woes. So more of the Brexit party is likely to return to Labour than the Tories.

Whichever way you look at it, this is a case of the Brexit party self-harming and I would Expect the Brexit party polling numbers to start going down with Labour and the Tories the chief beneficiaries. Doesn't change the over picture much, though.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 03:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the overall picture is a hung Parliament, I think the odds are on that. But it's a situation in which feathers may weigh in the balance.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 05:08:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No one ever seems to mention incumbent advantage when discussing how marginal constituencies might go. In Ireland it is huge with people often voting for the person, not the party, if s/he is perceived as popular/hard working/competent etc. To what extent will that reduce churn in seats? Or does Brexit over-rule all other considerations?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 14th, 2019 at 02:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the logic is that the Brexit party running candidates in the south of England would increase the chances of a Remainer government being elected, why does that same logic not apply in the North of England? Farage has just destroyed the raison d'etre for his own party everywhere.

We may not like Boris and all he stands for, but he has just won round one - defeating the Brexit party as a credible competitor. The Tory party now IS THE Brexit party and there is no point in having another - if you are a Leaver.

Meanwhile the Remain vote is hopelessly split... Interestingly, the last Remain-Leave poll still showed at 10% Remain majority. Will they vote tactically Labour or Lib Dem depending on who has the better chance? What proportion of the UK electorate are sophisticated enough to vote tactically and know who HAS the better chance in their constituency?

And finally, will the Lib Dems and Labour be able to work together even if they secure the larger number of seats?

Me thinks we could be grasping at straws here...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 09:01:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if you are a Leaver

There's the rub. You wonder (perhaps rightly) if Remainers have the nous to reflect on their vote in an informed manner. The same question may be posed re Leavers, in spades.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 09:48:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Farage seems to agree with you ;) :

Brexit party will only stand in seats where there is no possibility it will affect the result

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 08:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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