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With the Tories almost certain to lose seats in Scotland, they have to do more than just hold their current seats in England - they have to win some seats currently held by Labour or the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are more likely to to hold theirs now that Boris is so openly allied to Farage and thereby losing some Remainer, "one nation", and moderate Tory voters to the Lib Dems.

Farage's decision probably also improves Labour's chances of holding seats in northern England. A vote for Farage is now no longer a protest vote - it is a vote for the conservative incumbent Boris - and the Conservatives are seen as responsible for much of Northern England's woes. So more of the Brexit party is likely to return to Labour than the Tories.

Whichever way you look at it, this is a case of the Brexit party self-harming and I would Expect the Brexit party polling numbers to start going down with Labour and the Tories the chief beneficiaries. Doesn't change the over picture much, though.


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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 03:57:58 PM EST
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