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If the overall picture is a hung Parliament, I think the odds are on that. But it's a situation in which feathers may weigh in the balance.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 05:08:44 PM EST
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No one ever seems to mention incumbent advantage when discussing how marginal constituencies might go. In Ireland it is huge with people often voting for the person, not the party, if s/he is perceived as popular/hard working/competent etc. To what extent will that reduce churn in seats? Or does Brexit over-rule all other considerations?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 14th, 2019 at 02:44:52 PM EST
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