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After one poll puts Tory lead over Labour at just 6 points - is the election race tightening?
A Survation opinion poll gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead today, the lowest since early October - so does this mean the election race is becoming closer?

Survation puts the Tories on 35 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent, a result that could give Boris Johnson a majority of just 18 seats, according to the model used by the Electoral Calculus website.

Given how many seats can change hands if there are small shifts in national shares of the vote, a projected majority of 18 is hardly secure - leaving alone the dramatic shifts in opinion that happened during the election campaign last time.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 13th, 2019 at 03:41:34 AM EST
Opinion polls in the UK have been notoriously unreliable and even the average of polls is of dubious value in predicting seat outcomes. For instance the latest YouGov poll - the only one taken since Farage announced the Brexit Party would not be standing against the conservatives - shows the Tories with a 14% lead. The average hasn't shifted significantly since I wrote this story.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 13th, 2019 at 11:38:17 AM EST
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I got curios about the collapse for the Brexit party.

Turns out, in that poll they changed form of the headline question from selecting between all parties to selecting between candidates known to appear in your constituency. Though this is fair as a measurement on election result (you can't vote for a condidate that isn't there), it creates the illusion of a change. Also it creates even more possible distortions from the polling, depending on where those polled claims (it is yougov after all) they live, and which candidates are availeble there.

If one looks at the same question that they asked last time where the respondents are chosing between all parties the changes are:
Lib dem -1
SNP -1
Plaid Cymru +1
Brexit Party -1
Greens +1
Other +1
And that is all. Probably no statistical significant changes.

Of course, a poll that creates the impression that Conservatives are pulling ahead has an effect on the debate and can thus create the effect it claims - byt hasn't - measured. Which is probably why they do it.

by fjallstrom on Wed Nov 13th, 2019 at 12:17:39 PM EST
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