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I got curios about the collapse for the Brexit party.

Turns out, in that poll they changed form of the headline question from selecting between all parties to selecting between candidates known to appear in your constituency. Though this is fair as a measurement on election result (you can't vote for a condidate that isn't there), it creates the illusion of a change. Also it creates even more possible distortions from the polling, depending on where those polled claims (it is yougov after all) they live, and which candidates are availeble there.

If one looks at the same question that they asked last time where the respondents are chosing between all parties the changes are:
Lib dem -1
SNP -1
Plaid Cymru +1
Brexit Party -1
Greens +1
Other +1
And that is all. Probably no statistical significant changes.

Of course, a poll that creates the impression that Conservatives are pulling ahead has an effect on the debate and can thus create the effect it claims - byt hasn't - measured. Which is probably why they do it.

by fjallstrom on Wed Nov 13th, 2019 at 12:17:39 PM EST
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