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Yes, it will only the first agreement ("contract") won't resemble anything that UK yella sheets have been training ("grooming") their readers to expect--not Canada, not Norway, not NAFTA, +++. Rhetorical attempts will be made by scribblers to fit it into one of those glass shoes.

The agreement proffered by EU for PM signature and parliament's approval will represent the Political Declaration in its "legal form". Sadly, the Political Declaration is not a household word for bilateral execution of customs duties. True, mass confusion in the UK will recur, but the "deal" will be done sequentially. That is in a series of partial quotes on the basis until the whole project is complete. One tortured event every two to three years, I suppose.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 at 04:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A bog standard off-the-shelf FTA, probably modelled on Canada, plus a few security and other cooperative agreements, is all the UK can expect in the first tranche of the agreement, reached probably after an extended Transition period. And that is probably only if Boris is not in charge, or does a U -turn comparable to the one he has just done on N. Ireland.

It will be pitiful to see, the UK begging to retain some of the privileges of membership, while having little leverage to achieve those goals - and probably having to pay through the nose for benefits it has for so long taken for granted. But will all 27 continuing member states having a veto, and all willing to put their oar in to ensure their own national interests are served, it can be no other way.

Once you're out, you're out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 at 04:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not take a moment to explain a "A bog standard off-the-shelf FTA", given the UK has been an EU (or Customs Union if you prefer) member for nearly 50 years so absent party to such; why such an agreement would "probably modelled on Canada" (CTA) which dragged a five years period to re-negotiate and ratify; also the alternative basis (if not Political Agreement, if not GATT, if not prior bilateral FTA) since EU and UK have already separated WTO schedules.

Remember that notification? Good. You'll be able to explain how the UK schedule might affect trade (by Q, V) on the island.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 at 06:27:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Simple really. The negotiations do not start until after Brexit has happened, so the starting point is not the benefits the UK had as a member, but the UK as a third party with no ongoing agreement with the EU beyond the Transition period. It is unclear whether UK WTO schedules will be accepted by other WTO members without formal agreements being struck, and President Trump has already demonstrated that WTO Treaties don't really apply to the more powerful party in a trading relationship in any case. I would be nervous relying solely on "WTO rules" at the present time and they are not especially helpful to the UK in any case, with 80% of the UK economy being made up of services.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 at 07:04:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The joke is on me, said the blind man. I see through the idiom to the truth at bottom. "A bog standard off-the-shelf FTA" is fantastic enterprise, a "golden chalice," a fleece like "frictionless trade" which wraps BREXIT. Thank you!

That article is informative and to it I will add:
WTO | Members adopt draft decision to improve tariff and import data, discuss trade concerns, 19 May (not that one, the other one)

Members also discussed the negotiation of the future tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) by the European Union and United Kingdom as a result of Brexit. The issue was brought up again by the Russian Federation, which expressed "deep concern" with respect to the EU's approach to TRQ negotiations under Article XXVIII of the GATT. ... Six other members took the floor to note that they also disagreed with the EU-UK approach, because the proposed split would result in no in-quota access to either the UK or the EU-27 for some TRQs. ...
TRADE FACTS THE UK GOVERNMENT HAS TO FACE

Nadie es libre.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 at 02:32:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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