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I've now arrived at the conclusion that most likely outcome is a Johnson government with a slim majority, elected with a very small % of the vote, dragging the UK out of the EU against the wishes of most of the constituent nations and most of the population. Scotland and NI try to leave the UK in the relatively short term, the Tories become increasingly English nationalist and authoritarian to distract from the economic damage, resist the attempts to leave, and the whole fucking thing is in significant danger of burning down.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 11th, 2019 at 02:20:47 PM EST
yes. Although I stll think that a Tory win is not a forgone conclusion. Strong rumours that strongly Remain Tory strongholds in the south east are vulnerable to the LibDems.

It's genuinely hard to call. I wouldn't believe the polls one iota

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 11th, 2019 at 05:07:06 PM EST
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I'm not even paying attention to the polls, just my perception of the mood of the country, based on my recent interactions with English people. My instinct is you/we are most likely screwed.

What worries me is that the universe normally manages to undershoot my expectations even when I allow for its tendency to undershoot my expectations ...

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 11th, 2019 at 05:14:16 PM EST
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Maybe.

My impression is there's a solid core of Tory voters who are disgusted by the current state of the party, and will either vote LD or stay at home.

The Tories are going to be wiped out in Scotland, so they need to win about 40 seats over the 2017 total to have a clear majority.

MeanwhileJohnson is an exploding gaffe machine, and the odds of him making it to the middle of December without an unbelievable fuck up of some kind are somewhere close to zero.

So IMO it's still too close to call. The campaign is just getting started, Remain still has options, while the other side has played its cards already and is being threatened by an entire furniture store of skeletons in closets.

I wouldn't put money either way, but I'm not unreasonably pessimistic about how this could go.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 at 12:15:48 AM EST
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