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It's genuinely hard to call. I wouldn't believe the polls one iota
keep to the Fen Causeway
What worries me is that the universe normally manages to undershoot my expectations even when I allow for its tendency to undershoot my expectations ...
My impression is there's a solid core of Tory voters who are disgusted by the current state of the party, and will either vote LD or stay at home.
The Tories are going to be wiped out in Scotland, so they need to win about 40 seats over the 2017 total to have a clear majority.
MeanwhileJohnson is an exploding gaffe machine, and the odds of him making it to the middle of December without an unbelievable fuck up of some kind are somewhere close to zero.
So IMO it's still too close to call. The campaign is just getting started, Remain still has options, while the other side has played its cards already and is being threatened by an entire furniture store of skeletons in closets.
I wouldn't put money either way, but I'm not unreasonably pessimistic about how this could go.
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