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"Brexit sets up a very dangerous dynamic whereby both the UK and the EU have a vested interest in securing their own stability by seeing the other fail. This is the stuff that wars are incubated in, even if, on this occasion, it leads to no more than an economic war."

Very dark scenario I can't agree with. The economic welfare of the UK and the EU is very much interdependent. Do not underestimate how the UK and EU are entangled through cooperation on intelligence, military through NATO under leadership of the US [:(] and strong ties through trade.

So much depends on the outcome of the election, but I see the Tories still aim for a hard Brexit with no-deal. When that would be the case, both the US and UK will be tough competitors for the EU bloc of nations. The EU most likely will be forced to look eastward to Asia and perhaps even warm their ties with Russia.

Let's see what happens with Macron's comment NATO is "brain-dead". As the US is the head of NATO, I can see the reflection of the CiC sitting in the White House as the target of Macron's statement.

Let's hope the economic power of the EU will go forward on Green policy goals and modernization of renewable energy, logistics and infrastructure. A lot to be gained without the ballast of the US and UK on measures to combat climate change.

by Oui on Thu Nov 21st, 2019 at 12:39:24 AM EST
Bill Clinton famously had a sign in his Little Rock campaign headquarters saying "it's the economy, stupid". But if Brexit has taught us anything, there is enough stupidity out there to make large numbers of people make decisions against their own financial and economic self interests.

It may not be in the economic interest of the EU and UK to be at loggerheads, but it may be in the political interest of their elites to maintain that impasse to ensure the political stability of their respective unions - and their position of leadership within them).

Why else has the UK elite been ranting at the EU for the past 40 years, blaming it for all manner of ills that have much more to do with UK government policies and actions than the EU?

Expect a future, perhaps more insecure, EU leadership to blame the UK for all manner of shortcomings in their own leadership and performance. Brexit has been a godsend distraction for the the elites on both sides, distracting from austerity, inequality, and incompetence all round.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 21st, 2019 at 10:47:25 AM EST
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These days domestic politics BEGINS at the border.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Nov 23rd, 2019 at 04:59:58 PM EST
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