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Gives the Tories an 86 seat majority:

Conservatives: 368

Labour: 191

SNP: 55

Liberal Democrats: 13

Plaid Cymru: 3

Greens: 1

Brexit party: 0

Others: 22



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:06:23 PM EST
well, that's totally fucked Christmas

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could be the same issue we see in the US. The metropolitan area are overwehlmingly left, but that still leaves vast swathes of the country where rather more atavistic tendencies predominate.

Anyway, that it for me. I see no point in staying up and watch the Hindenburg burn

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's basically sentient humans vs animals at this point. Get out if you can.

Although I have to say I find the poll very hard to believe. Even in rural areas there was fierce disgust with this version of the Tories.

But they can't just fix the result to order. Can they?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Either the electorate of the UK have lost their minds or this exit poll will go down as the biggest polling disaster since Dewey Defeats Truman.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know. It certainly reminds me of the stories Dolan of Exile and WarNerd fame tells about his youth in Reagan's California. Sure the students and young had all the energy and political commitment, but in the end money and silent resentment won out. Easily.
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember those days very well.

But now California is a Democratic Party stronghold so things do change.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are reasons to disbelieve the poll - to disbelieve the result, if it turns out to be similar.

None of the preceding polls were estimating a Tory win of this scale. And those polls were famously under-counting the youth vote.

The youth vote turned out in huge numbers. Turnout in general was much higher than usual - the highest in living memory in many locations - and that traditionally favours Labour.

There was significant and organised anti-Tory tactical voting, with candidates standing down and endorsing the other party in a number of seats. This has never happened before in an election.

A significant proportion of the Tory base is disgusted with Johnson. Some Tory stalwarts were actually encouraging voters to vote for a different party - including Labour in a few cases.

But Johnson - who ran an appallingly inept campaign - somehow managed to turn all of that around and win an extra fifty seats, presumably relying on working class Leave voters.

Even allowing for flagrant BBC and print media bias, that seems unlikely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, it's really 'out there.'

We will have to wait for the votes to be counted.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And by the way, who is counting the votes?
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The poll workers and watchers  

It's a fair system.  Paper ballots and there are plenty of people from all the parties to make sure there's no hanky-panky


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually it's pretty easy to game. You get yourself a few hundred spare ballot boxes, stuff them with a heavily slanted selection of the votes you want, and deliver them to the counting centre.

In theory ballots are numbered to guarantee this doesn't happen, but in practice I don't think the numbers are checked unless there's a good reason to check them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The brokenness (if you prefer a democracy over a republic) of the American system is the way the senate and electoral college work. That is somewhat different, I think, from the brokenness of the British system.
by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks bad. On the positive side, here comes Scottish independence. So UKanians have a lifeboat.
by IdiotSavant on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:15:55 PM EST
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Wait, are you saying that if somebody is born in, say, Birmingham, and has lived there for their entire lives, they could up stakes and move (quickly, now) to Edinburgh and claim to be Scottish? If that is the case, the population of Scotland could boom!
by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes - that's what being in the same country means. Of course, that might change on independence.

(Other reasons to move early: devolution means Scotland remains social democratic, and doesn't suffer so much from Tory austerity. Of course, the hard-right Tories want to reverse that...)

by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:30:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I really doubt this. If anything we're probably getting a Catalonia situation here.
by generic on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:39:20 AM EST
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In that the Tories will refuse to let Scotland democraticly determine its future? Probably. And as in Catalonia, that will further increase support for independence.
by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 01:25:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In that the Tories will have it blow up if they need a new distraction from all the money they steal/people dying in the streets once people finallyget sick of Brexit.
by generic on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 09:24:02 AM EST
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tbh,the exit poll is miraculous. For SNP to gain 20 seats in Westminster every constituency but four (4) dumped a Tory and Labour MP.
by Cat on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 01:49:45 AM EST
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Well, they've done it before, and the Scots hate Tories. But I guess we'll find out in a couple of hours.
by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 02:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if this isn't wildly off then I can go back to my initial prediction: The LibDems will give us hard Brexit.
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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