Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Exit polls have generally been fairly accurate, so it looks like Boris is going to get a more than adequate majority tomorrow. That means he will drive his Brexit deal through parliament, the UK will Brexit on Jan31st., and the EU will play hardball on a FTA knowing Boris has self-imposed a Dec. 2020 deadline for getting a deal done.

And the rest of Europe can get on with their lives.

Remarkably the one aspect of the "future relationship" which has already been agreed as part of that Withdrawal Agreement is that there will be no customs border on the Island of Ireland which means the UK will have to administer one in the Irish Sea once the transition period is over - unless the UK does a U-turn and stays within the CUSM either temporarily or permanently. Let us presume Boris and the ERG stick to their guns and rule out this option.

From an Irish perspective this is a least worse option. East West trade between Ireland and the UK will be effected, but not north south within Ireland. Any  "border down the Irish sea" will discredit the DUP when it happens as they will be seen to have brought an unwanted Brexit upon an unwilling people and caused a rift between Britain and N. Ireland to have opened up.

But that is for the next election to clarify. If a solid Boris majority is confirmed and Boris gets his deal through,  N. Ireland Unionists are going to feel betrayed by Boris - and screwed by the DUP - and will feel they have no where to turn. Their initial reaction will probably be to bury their heads in the sand and pretend nothing is happening, but my guess is that future historians will regard Brexit and this election as a watershed and a milestone on the road to a united Ireland in perhaps a decade from now.

But its going to be a difficult road...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:33:12 PM EST
With the SNP projected to take 55 of 59 seats the word "United" in "United Kingdom" has to be questioned.  At the moment Independence Yes/No are split 50/50.  After this I suspect Yes is going to get a huge boost.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate the perfidiousness of perfidious Albion.

Johnson's UK will be perfectly happy to become an outright enemy of the EU. Expect actual skirmishes over territorial waters and Gibraltar, political name-calling, non-cooperation, and continuous point scoring.

The fact that much of the population will be living in shocking poverty and outright violent oppression will be incidental.

This won't be business as usual. This will be more like Franco's Spain or Hitler's Germany, but without the occasional competence.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you give the UK way too much power and influence once it's on its lonesome.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:53:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Big enough and stupid enough to be a fucking nuisance, all the same.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 07:37:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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