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There are reasons to disbelieve the poll - to disbelieve the result, if it turns out to be similar.

None of the preceding polls were estimating a Tory win of this scale. And those polls were famously under-counting the youth vote.

The youth vote turned out in huge numbers. Turnout in general was much higher than usual - the highest in living memory in many locations - and that traditionally favours Labour.

There was significant and organised anti-Tory tactical voting, with candidates standing down and endorsing the other party in a number of seats. This has never happened before in an election.

A significant proportion of the Tory base is disgusted with Johnson. Some Tory stalwarts were actually encouraging voters to vote for a different party - including Labour in a few cases.

But Johnson - who ran an appallingly inept campaign - somehow managed to turn all of that around and win an extra fifty seats, presumably relying on working class Leave voters.

Even allowing for flagrant BBC and print media bias, that seems unlikely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:26:08 PM EST
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