Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Disapprove 66 81 51 68 70 63 67 70

Incumbent win rate for each state
In the 2018 general election, an average of 92 percent of incumbents nationwide won re-election. That rate is not atypical (1964-2018). Save that date.

According to one theory of congressional stagnation, 1900-1924 average rate of change was 53.9, and 1926-1950 is was 56.1. Explanation of inelasticity of demand, or preference, for incumbent candidates does not explicitly factor legislated delegation of constitutional authorities such as war powers or expansive stimulus regulation to the executive in the periods observed. However, the greatest common factor of summarized reasons is "power of the purse" vested in the house of representatives In other words, both voters and representatives value control and disbursement of federal treasury more than any other congressional function. The relation of an incumbent to constituents competing for grants and loans or bankruptcy protection perforce is patronage.

Conversely, Gilens and Page (not that one, the other one) adopt factor analysis to reify the cube root of electoral administration by legislatures. Ex post facto voter preference for any elected candidate is expressed as "a quadratic logistic regression technique to estimate the opinions of respondents" about four traditions of republican governance. From this calculus, the pair infer, ordinary, median or unelected, citizens reasonably "have little or no independent influence on policy at all" except, oddly enough, when they incorporate as "business" or trade associations, interest groups, PACs, and so forth to guarantee re-election of ...incumbents who patronize them. Whatevs.

The salient point is, incumbents have shirked responsibility for authorities they delegated to the office of the president. And they and the majority of their constituents only resent that to the extent the president and legislative error disrupts free cash flow from treasury to a hinterlands. I can't speak for the British, but US American political posturing is not more sophisticated than that.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Dec 11th, 2019 at 10:46:06 AM EST
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