Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
There's 43 days left for the Brits to stop smoking opium and Get Real and there's no sign of it.

May's "strategy" (sic) seems to be to do nothing* and pass the Withdrawal Agreement at the last possible second with the help of Labour votes setting up to push the opprobrium of a Failed Brexit© and the economic damages of Brexit on Labour.  

If May had any sense she'd resign and let someone else go into the history books as the daft bugger who implemented Brexit.

*  which she doesn't actually do all that well, sad to say

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 14th, 2019 at 08:52:50 PM EST
Is there any evidence whatsoever that there are 80+ Labour MPs ready to vote for her deal to make up for the 80+ DUP and ERG MP's who are likely to prefer no deal to her deal? If there is, I must have missed it.

If May still wants her deal, or something like it to pass, she has no choice but to do a deal with Corbyn. He is likely to be more sympathetic to making Brexit happen than any other putative Labour leader.

In the meantime the EU are looking on impatiently to see if there is anything that has any possibility of making her deal palatable to the House of Commons, and so far they have come up with nothing.

Meanwhile the ERG seem to believe that the EU (or its member states) will be falling over themselves to do deals with the UK once a No deal Brexit actually happens.

But why would they - until the €45 Billion as been paid, the rights of EU citizens in the UK have been guaranteed, and the Irish border issue has been resolved? Yes some sectoral deals may be possible, but only where they are clearly in the interests of the EU.

Any PM with any self-respect would have resigned by now. She is clearly being used as a pawn by others in the ERG, and has lost the respect of the EU. Why be the fall girl for everyone else?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 15th, 2019 at 03:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not think there are enough Labour votes to pass the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement.  

May won't resign.  Once a politician reaches the pinnacle of power they cling to it and have to be removed by the force of law or force of the other kind.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Feb 15th, 2019 at 05:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trade deals are done by the EU Commission, not individual member States. Brussels has a negotiating team ready to receive their UK guests .... May's ERG Team? 😒
by Oui on Fri Feb 15th, 2019 at 05:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does the EU Commission instruct their negotiating team and the negotiating team negotiate when their respective opposite numbers are going, "ARRRRRRRRggggggggggghhhhhity-bargle-foof-dee do!"  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Feb 15th, 2019 at 05:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're forgetting the bit of Brexiteer mythology where the EU explodes into its constituent parts because they simply can't manage without the Brits holding the show together for them. The ERG will then simply march in and negotiate on a one to one basis with former memebres and bring the Irish etc. to heel...

`Top-hatted Rees-Mogg and Bullingdon Club Johnson, calling Ireland to heel'

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 15th, 2019 at 05:51:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't want this to come across as some kind of defense of May -- as y'all know, I can't stand her -- but looking at it from afar it seems like there's really no deal to be had here that can pass with the EU and Parliament.  The makeup of Parliament makes it unworkable.

Neither she nor Corbyn can square the circle here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Feb 18th, 2019 at 11:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Her AND Corbyn together could, but they won't work together.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Feb 18th, 2019 at 11:35:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you were Corbyn would you work with her?  I'd be saying, "Sorry skipper, you're the one who hit this iceberg, I'm finding a lifeboat."
by rifek on Wed Mar 6th, 2019 at 05:06:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
May wants a leave document that is supported by the conservative party, one that holds its internal coalition together. That is the circle which cannot be squared.

Because she cannot create a majority in the Commons with any deal which meets her own red lines and that of the ERG. Let alone that of the DUP. In this process the other opposition parties are helpless by-standers.

It's not that May and Corbyn can't work together, but May knows that any deal she could get with Corbyn would involve compromises the ERG could never accept. If brexit were to be done on such terms, the Tory party would split. Which is May's deepest red line. Brexit was conceived to stop the Tory party splitting and May will do nothing to hurt her tribe. Regardless of the damage to the country.

So, she is left with holding Parliament to ransom : Agree my deal or have no deal.

Although, it's worse than that,

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 19th, 2019 at 09:29:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And for some reason the EU doesn't share her highest red line that the Tory Party must be held together - even if it were possible to conceive of a document which could do this. From an EU perspective, why would you put your head in that bunfight, when the only possible outcome is mutually assured destruction?

But perhaps Theresa May is playing a long game. She knows the Tory/Labour duopoly cannot survive this disaster and is determined that it won't be the Tories that will bite the dust. If she can hold her coalition together longer than Corbyn can his, she might even win.

What happens to the UK in the interim is almost irrelevant.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Feb 19th, 2019 at 05:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just before the US Civil War, both sides of the duopoly split.  The split was an ideological one that happened to be sectional as well and so set the table for the war.  150 years later, we're still sorting it out.  And then in 1968 it nearly happened again.  The Republicans temporarily stepped back from the abyss.  Aghast by the 1964 Goldwater campaign that was little more than a front for John Birch Society hate-blather, cooler heads took control back and buried Reagan that time.  The Democrats, though, split, with George Wallace taking the Dixiecrat segregationists off, leaving the northern urban base in the party, which was not enough to beat Nixon.  By 1972 Wallace was no longer a factor, Lee Atwater's Southern Strategy had turned the Dixiecrats into Republicans, and Nixon thrashed the "wimpy pinko" McGovern.  Insert Watergate, let simmer, and we have the Bicentennial Election of 1976.  On the Republican side, Ford was the incumbent president so he got the nomination, but it was apparent that Reagan and the zombie armies of the Right were the future.  On the Democratic side, the powers went, "See, we went too far to the left, that's why we lost in '68 and '72," and dumped Kennedy for Carter.  Carter won, but neither he nor the party was ready for prime time and did not have the skills to govern effectively (rather the same position Labour would be in if Corbyn suddenly found himself at No. 10).  Results: Reagan takes it in 1980; the Republican Party starts goose-stepping down the Right Road until it now is little more than Fascism Lite; and the Democrats, now even more afraid of anything that can even remotely be considered progressive, is taken over by the DLC and transforms into a club of corporate whores whose only interest is enabling the fever dreams of every neolib and neocon.  Clinton and Gore ram through NAFTA and similar trade deals, killing blue collar jobs in the US once and for all; Gingrich sucks up scads of disaffected "deplorables" in 1994, feeds them a steady diet on anti-international/anti-immigrant rhetoric, and uses them to destroy the last traces of Republican support for any foreign policy other than military intervention; and voila, here we are.

The UK duopoly is on the verge of fracturing; neither May nor Corbyn has the tools to stop it.  If (when) it happens, it will be profoundly destabilizing (worse than the US because the UK is far more dependent on parties to make the system work); it will take years to sort out, and perhaps not in our lifetimes; and there will be a significant, dangerous shift to the right.

by rifek on Wed Mar 6th, 2019 at 06:08:13 PM EST
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