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I don't know who you're referring to here, but I doubt May will survive for more than another few months and think she should have resigned after her deal was defeated by a record margin. She has neither authority nor credibility in London or Brussels and is simply running down the clock in the hope she can force people to support her deal as an alternative to no deal.

Even an extension to the A.50 notification period doesn't solve or change anything except buy her a little more time and the EU may be reluctant to grant it unless she comes with a firm proposal as to what she is going to do during the extension period - e.g. call an election or a second referendum.

My guess is some Brexiteers will support her deal if they see the alternative of no Brexit becoming more likely, but probably not enough to pass it. Remainer and some establishment Tories may also support a second referendum if the alternative is a general election which they might lose to Corbyn, But enough to pass legislation for a second referendum? Very doubtful. So we could still be here in Limbo even after a 3 month A.50 extension.

And will the EU then agree to extend A.50 even further? Very doubtful indeed. A No deal Brexit is still the default and most likely outcome simply because the House of Commons can't agree on anything else.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 2nd, 2019 at 08:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She hasn't resigned because she doesn't need to. There is no constitutional way to remove her.

There has never been a situation where a sitting PM hasn't done the decent-ish thing and resigned in the face of overwhelming failure and contempt. Now we find that in the absence of a constitutional impeachment mechanism, if a PM is a bit bonkers and decides to carry on regardless there's nothing Parliament or party can do to get rid of them.

She can also point to the polls. Although they're not entirely to be trusted, there is no doubt that she has the support of a significant proportion of the population, and that Brexit has solid media support from the BBC and the tabloids.

Her own vanity is also a contributing factor. Given the way that she has enraged her party, her suggestion this week that she would carry on after Brexit to deliver a "domestic agenda" is so tone-deaf it's almost performance art.

But I strongly suspect the real reason she hasn't gone is because she's on commission to deliver Brexit as promised, to sponsors unknown.

There are simply too many elements that suggest Brexit was planned for a long time, someone expects it to be delivered as planned, and that someone is going to be extremely angry if it isn't.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Mar 2nd, 2019 at 09:45:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't need a Conspiracy theory to explain her behaviour. She probably believes that her Brexit deal is the best Brexit deal negotiable, and she is probably right about that. She is also right that it is preferable to no deal. Her problem is getting the hard core Brexiteers on board - many of whom would probably prefer no deal and may only be persuaded to vote for her deal if No Brexit becomes a likely alternative outcome.

So a lot of them will probably vote for her deal on March 12th., because otherwise the delay motion might pass, and that opens up the possibility of a second referendum or an election. If she can't get her deal passed she will have to decide between No deal and No Brexit - or maybe the HOC will take that decision away from her. But she needs to be seen to be delivering on her Brexit mandate and if she fails she has no honourable course but to resign. Not that that means she will.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 2nd, 2019 at 10:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She probably believes that her Brexit deal is the best Brexit deal negotiable, and she is probably right about that
given her own red lines of no free movement and no customs union.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 12:07:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is the best deal she can get given her xenophobia. She could easily get a much better deal.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 12:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"May's deal" is/es the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) with the EU in final, legal form as negotiated between the two parties, UK and EU governments, and dated 17 Nov 2018.

WA appendices, eg. the Protocols and the "Political Declaration ..." a negotiable trade agenda agreed to by the two parties are contingent to ratification of the WA.

EU Council has announced WA negotiation is concluded; the document cannot and will not be altered. This position has not change despite claims to the contrary by T. May, proffered to UK parliament and press.

What "deal" are you (pl.) people discussing now?
Please define your terms to those of us who are not privy to the private joke.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 09:25:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That sounds like a reasonable assumption.

So, assuming her target is to get her deal through, I would guess that she will try to keep it alive, and put it against Remain when talking to Brexiteers, and put it against No deal Brexit when talking to Remainers.

So if she calls a referendum, she would want to put it against the less popular of these two (more popular) options. Which right now is No deal. It can be motivated by the question of Brexit already being settled, now is just time to decide how, etc etc.

And then people get angry, Remainers stays home, and quite possibly No deal wins. Brexit referendum all over again.

by fjallstrom on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 01:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no constitutional way to remove her.

I was under the impression that a motion of no confidence in the House of Commons is the constitutional way to force a government to resign or call an election.

Am I wrong there?
Or is the "or call elections" with a spectre of a PM Corbyn such a deterrent that is seems impossible to everyone?

by DerFriederich on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 06:00:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty much, and also Conservative Party rules forbid a leadership challenge within 12 months of the previous abortive ERG one - a real botch job which should have destroyed Jacob Rees-Mogg's reputation for any kind of competence...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 06:56:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We seem to be living in an age where competence is almost a barrier to high office.

One only has to look at the shambles of a Cabinet formed by the self-styled "Party of Business" where each one has presided over a series of financial and managerial catastrophes that would have done for the lot of them in a more informed age.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 07:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Competence in correctly performing which skill(s)?
Please name the skill(s) and define to the best of you ability and knowledge its correct performance.

Why is this exercise necessary? This exercise is necessary to establish criteria and evaluation of agreement between people about the terms and conditions of some mutual enterprise.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Mar 3rd, 2019 at 09:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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