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It seems to me the UK government and parliament faces 2 fundamental strategic choices or options going forward.

  1. It can accept the referendum result as binding and absolute and either agree May's deal or proceed with a no Brexit deal. The economic fall-out will simply be an unavoidable consequence of a political imperative. So either May gets her deal approved, or she resigns and her successor (probably Boris Johnson) goes the no deal route. All negatives will be the fault of remoaners or the big, bad,inflexible, vindictive EU.

  2. It can accept there is no majority for Brexit in this Parliament and call either a general election or a second referendum. There is no guarantee a general election will resolve the issue and for many it would be a case of turkeys voting for Christmas. A second referendum would be hugely divisive and would probably have to include three options where voters would vote in order of their choice: May's Deal, No deal, and Remain. However at least it could provide a decisive result.

If the result is May's Deal or No deal, the people will have to live the the consequences of their vote and the political system is somewhat absolved. If the result is Remain, the legacy of Brexit would be a hugely more divided UK society with renewed calls for Irish re-unification and Scottish independence. But for most it would be an episode best soon forgotten. Many of the older Brexit voting population would be retiring or dying off resulting in diminishing political influence.

Either way, there would be some economic consequences, most severe in the case of No deal. But it seems, Brexit was never primarily about the overall economic performance of the UK in the first place. It was a struggle for relative power by those who felt it seeping away from them. Still hard to know who will ultimately win. My money is still, marginally, on some form of Brexit happening, most likely no deal.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 15th, 2019 at 04:03:28 PM EST

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