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There is a way out of this mess, even, or especially, with a constrained timeline. But it would require a bit of political imagination on May's part. Hence everyone's pessimism.

She has to be able to come to accept that her deal is dead, in this parliament at least, and that it is her responsibility, as PM, to find and chart an alternative route.

This means one of two things:

  1. Accept the default outcome of no deal, which will in all probability mean no future trade deal either, and no certainty that even "WTO rules" will apply. "WTO rules" are an unchallenged Brexiteer shibboleth. In reality, if the EU decides "WTO rules" aren't in its interest, it can tear up the WTO rulebook, as Trump has done, and refuse to agree the UK is a WTO member in good standing, refuse to agree WTO tariffs and quotas with the UK, or even withdraw from the WTO altogether. After all, the vast bulk of EU external trade is governed by bi-lateral trade deals rather than by generic WTO rules.

  2. She can follow the logic of her own position - which is that her deal is in the UK's best interests - and put her deal directly to the British people either by was of a general election or second referendum. This will require at least a couple of months to organise, hence a further A.50 extension, and participation in EP elections. A general election could be called for May 23rd. to coincide with EP elections and reduce the cost and political overhead. Corbyn is sure to agree and provide a parliamentary majority, no matter what the hard core Tory Brexiteers say.

A general election in May will cause huge dilemmas for both parties. The Tories will try to ride two horses at once: May's deal and no deal, in an attempt to head of UKIP, Farage, the BNP and assorted fascists. Labour will also be trying to ride two horses: "A better deal" which Corbyn will claim to be able to negotiate - to general scepticism if not derision -  to be followed by a second referendum giving the people a final choice between Corbyn's deal and Remain.

I really don't understand what peoples problem with a second referendum or general election is. Democracy is a moving feast. People change their minds all the time. Different parties with different policies come to power. It doesn't really matter what people thought they were promised in 2016. The bottom line is that "having cake and eating it" isn't on the menu. It's time to make a more informed choice. But it is all down to May, and she has shown no evidence of imagination or ability so far.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 04:14:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
People don't have a problem with a People's Vote.

Leave HQ very much does, because it knows that a PV will put a stake through the heart of Brexit - and all that money, time, effort, and media noise will have been for nothing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 11:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, but their latest meme - also propagated by May - is that people are fed up with all the wrangling by politicians (always a good populist line) and just want them to "get on with it" - and by it they mean a no deal Brexit. For some reason they have been able to get even establishment politicians to buy into a "common wisdom" that democracy, political stability and violence is threatened if politicians fail to carry out the expressed will of the people and instead consult them a second time on precisely what form of Brexit they wanted.

All b/s, I know, but a handy way to stampede the Commons into allowing a no deal Brexit to happen for fear of having to face an angry electorate.

Theresa May has just spent most of the week-end consulting with senior Brexiteers on what she should do next - not the mainstream elements in her party, not the Remainers, not other party leaders, and certainly not Jeremy Corbyn. They have her by the short and curlies when her only hope of getting the Commons to agree anything is to reach across the aisle. Even the Lib Dems and SNP could probably provide her with a majority for a referendum without Corbyn's support.

But NOOOOO, it has to be her way or the high way, a Tory Brexit that only Tories and the DUP will support. She still seems to think she can bully people into supporting her deal. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 12:24:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think she's actually afraid that, if she pushes anything but Brexit, the Tories will schism, profoundly and permanently, and that is the one black mark against her legacy she is unwilling to accept.
by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 03:27:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably, and yet that will probably be the unintended outcome of everything she is doing to prevent it.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 12:24:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Her career has been a string of unintended outcomes.
by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 08:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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