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tbh it's not the deal that is the problem, that would be the Irish backstop. This exists to ensure that the International Treaty signed by the UK and the Republic, overseen by the United States and the United Nations, is honooured by ensuring that there will be an open border between the Republic and the UK.

The deal is about the political severance. Then we enter into negotiations about the trading relationships and the backstop says that, in order to preserve the open border, tariffs on either side of the border must remain the same until such time as an alternative agreement exists. If Ulster leaves the EU as part of the UK, then it follows that either Ulster stays within the EU tariff zone while Britain (ie England, Scotland and Wales) go off and do their thing or the whole of the UK remains in the tariff zone (and unable to do separate trading deals).

this makes the backstop, which is a legal requirement under international treaty into a poison pill for the Tories. They don't really care about Ulster all that much, despite their wittering on about the Union, but they do care about the votes of the DUP in Westminster.

And that's why Boris is determined to end the backstop, not the deal itself. But the backstop is the non-negotiable part which is not really in the gift of the EU to waive.

It's the ultimate Eton boys bluff. They think that speaking slowly and loudly means that they can get what they want, rules are just for little people, not bold-world conquerors like english public school Oxford graduates. Seize the day !!! They don't like it up 'em. etc etc.

This works in Westminster and to a lesser extent in Washington. It cuts no ice whatsoever in Brussels, which annoys them immensely and is part of the reason they want to leave.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 10:43:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
sorry, first para should end...

honoured by ensuring that there will be an open border between the Republic and Ulster.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 12:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"It cuts no ice whatsoever in Brussels..." Check back in October after the EU gives another extension.

Boris has a perfectly good strategy, which is to use no-deal Brexit as a way to ride into the history books. Regardless of whether it is a huge success or a complete fiasco, he will show up as the PM who confronted Europe. Theresa May will be a footnote, along with Cameron and whats-his-name and that other one.  

by asdf on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 01:32:30 PM EST
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Giving another extension has already been mooted on the EU side. However, it is not the same thing as accepting to do away with the backstop.

To obtain that, Pfeffle would have to demonstrate exactly how his alternative system would operate. For the moment, 1) he has no alternative system on offer, 2) he is refusing to enter discussions unless the EU first agrees to pull the backstop from the agreement.

That is a recipe for no discussion and no deal. The notion that the EU would sign an agreement in which no watertight arrangement was provided for in respect of the border of the free market and customs union, and of the particular needs of the island of Ireland, is unicornical.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 02:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, of course my hypothesis is that Alex's strategy is contingent on the Irish Question. But this is part of the huff and puff. My expectation is that once he has a Conservative-Leave majority, he doesn't need the DUP, and summarily ditches them, and finds the backstop a jolly good idea after all.

How well this flip-flop goes down with electors is immaterial, because he's five years out from the next election (and the list of horrors he will have done by then will be so long that the betrayal of the Unionists will be barely a footnote)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 02:11:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is pretty much my hypothesis in this diary. What Pfeffle is aiming at is a manageable Tory majority and five years in Number 10 for him.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 02:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1) he has no alternative system on offer

Well that's not true.  He has a unicorn stampede scheduled for All Hallows Eve.

by rifek on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 03:38:26 PM EST
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That's his secret weapon. It will strike fear into the (already craven by definition) hearts of the Johnny Foreigners.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 08:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thus spake Piffle of Piff All.
by rifek on Wed Jul 31st, 2019 at 07:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or, as he likes to call his ancient seat, Sweet Pfeff 'all.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 06:01:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't think for one moment we don't know what you did there... still, you set that one up nicely...:-)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 08:51:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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