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Guardian - Larry Elliot - Boris Johnson takes note of Trump's game theory to keep EU guessing on Brexit

Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane. Both have the option to pull over but neither driver wants to give way first. What happens next? This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that's hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.
Boris Johnson has arrived in Downing Street and has reshaped the cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers rather than those who backed remain in the referendum. Preparations for a no-deal departure have been ramped up in order to show the rest of the EU that the government means what it says. Johnson has made it clear that he is in no hurry to start negotiations and, by spraying money, is creating the impression that he would be willing to call a general election in order to get a mandate for his tougher Brexit approach. From a game theory perspective, all this makes complete sense. Like Trump with Xi, the prime minister is trying to keep the EU guessing.

What is potentially helpful to the new prime minister is that the eurozone economy is in worse shape than it was a year ago. Germany, in particular, is struggling. Its manufacturing exports have been hit by the global slowdown and Berlin fears it will be targeted by Trump when he launches the second front in the trade war. Angela Merkel does not want a no-deal Brexit.
Leo Varadkar is worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the Irish economy. What should also concern the taoiseach is whether the EU would be prepared to sell Ireland out in order to avoid one.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 07:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the unstated assumption of computational outcomes is always mutual acceptance of game rules by 2 or more players, Trump's "strategy" ought to be immediately obvious. Indeed every minute since inauguration day one complaint (not "HE'S A RACIST") from all corners of the ahh peer group.

IOW, the little known secret to adversarial victory,
memorialized centuries ago in The Art of War (bibble);
restated in common law doctrine ("duty to retreat");
suggested by Herbert Simone in Sciences of the Artificial ("prisoner's dilemma"): don't play;
and confirmed by William H. Press and Freeman Dyson discuss "Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma contains strategies that dominate any evolutionary opponent", or "Come up with a new theory of mind."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same complaint about Tories, basically.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane.

A more precise analogy would involve a Mini Cooper facing a 40-ton Saab-Scania truck.

by Bernard on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 07:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the driver of the Mini Cooper is convinced that if he just puts the pedal to the metal the 40-ton Saab-Scania truck will turn, because otherwise that driver is going to get such a mess to clean up.
by fjallstrom on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is the Saab-Scania truck  has nowhere to turn to, because he hurtling down a narrow road...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Trump's game theory"


by asdf on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's game theory
Presidents  Trump  and  Xiare  approaching  a  game  theory  Nash  construct.Both,  predecessors included,  have  colluded  into  creating  a  race  towards  dominance  of  global  trade,  finance  and technology. China by, primarily,  enhancing the consumption share of US GDP and America by feeding  Chinese  insatiable  hunger  for  technology.    They  created  a  dangerous  measure  of interdependence that translated into a mutually exclusive "win" situation.  The game would have continued unchallenged was it not for President Trump's sudden realization that the probability of a win-win outcome is low. He then tampered with the underlying premises of the game and a new  dynamic  emerged. How  will  the  game  evolve?  
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm incredulous Trump saw that we were not on track for a win-win outcome.  I'm not even convinced he saw the US in general was not winning.  As with every other "deal" he supposedly has known the art of, he saw a quick, front-end benefit to himself personally and grabbed it, everyone else be hanged.
by rifek on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 10:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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