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Once you get one assumption wrong, an array of alternate futures present themselves, and for each of those alternates, a further array of downstream scenarios present themselves.

You can analyse yourself into paralysis if you try to cover all eventualities, so I have focused on the most likely outcome at each point in the decision tree conscious that even one minor error can result in a very different array of outcomes.

No one end outcome seems very likely, all are a consequence of a string of events that are inherently unusual or unprecedented even if each individual decision seems logical enough. In hindsight many will claim to have foreseen all and indeed claim the outcome was obvious all along.

I look forward to reading lots of "histories" of Brexit claiming everything was the inevitable outcome because blah blah blah. The reality is nobody "knows" but strategists and actors have to make predictions so they can prepare for whatever outcomes eventuate, and with luck, anticipate them and influence them to their advantage.

There are lots of things I would be telling Corbyn right now if I were an advisor and his objective was to be a successful and effective PM... doesn't mean I would always get it right.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 18th, 2019 at 05:15:00 PM EST
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