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DW talks to Nicola Sturgeon
DW: It doesn't look like the Supreme Court will rule against the suspension of parliament. Do you really think that whole process will settle what is essentially political?
authorities of all elected members of parliament to vote "a deal," or legislate "a way forward" for ["]the government["] to execute.
STURGEON: Well, there has to be some limits on the ability of ["]a government["] and in this case a minority government to close down parliament in order to avoid scrutiny. So I hope, and I respect the independence of the judiciary, but I hope the Supreme Court will find that the prorogation of parliament was unlawful as Scottish court reached that conclusion last week, and then we can see parliament recalled and much needed scrutiny applied to Boris Johnson's whole approach to BREXIT. His approach, I think, is to see the UK "crash out" without "a deal" but be able to blame the European Union for that.
"dead lock" in parliament
Instead we need to avoid "a no deal" BREXIT and request an extension to Article 50 if necessary and then see a general election and a further referendum to try to get the UK ["]a way out["] of this.
Parliament's Article 50 revocation? Parliament's approval of the Withdrawal Agreement? No.
DW: How likely is it that the UK will ["]crash out["] of the EU without ["]a deal["]? And would it mean ["]the end["] for the United Kingdom?
STURGEON: I think it is a significant risk that the UK will "crash out" without "a deal" and that will have a severe impact on many people in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK, and I do think that will make it even more likely that Scotland chooses to become an independent country. I don't want to see that damage be done to Scotland or the rest of the UK, so we will continue to try to avoid a "no deal" BREXIT, but it's very difficult to see how "a deal" is struck that both satisfies the European Union and also gets a majority in the House of Commons. A "no deal" BREXIT cannot be ruled out, although we should seek a further extension. That is the only way to avoid it.
'Twas a pity parliament had no confidence in attaining "a majority" by general election before deciding to request another A.50(3) extension to Jan 2020, because expiration date.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 18th, 2019 at 09:25:54 PM EST
Should prorogation be ruled invalid by SCOTUK and Parliament be reconvened in September, say the 23rd, Parliament could then again seize control of the order and, at that time, vote no confidence in the administration. Grounds could be misleading the Queen and systematically undermining the sovereignty of Parliament.  They would then have the 14 days before they could call for a VOC for a new interim government led by Corbyn. Or just call the VOC and wait him out, pulling the trigger on the 15th day. In the process repeatedly make it clear that this is happening because Boris squandered his majority by expelling Remain Tories. Any number can play the game of making it up as they go.

They could find Boris in contempt of Parliament and lock him up in the clock tower or other facility that they could designate. That would impede further machinations. And they could pass legislation requiring the consent of Parliament to any prorogation. It would be hard for Boris' government to make credible arguments that this is a violation of custom, as the whole present situation is based on the government's ongoing violation of customs.

First drive a stake through the vampire, then deal with the angry mob. Elections could wait until April. By that time disillusionment would have set in for the average Brexiteer.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 02:50:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Me thinks one option for the House of Commons would be to vote no confidence in Boris as PM and demand his resignation, but not vote no confidence in his government in the form prescribed by the Fixed Term Parliament Act (as this would trigger the 14 day period required to expire before a general election can be called) - a general election they would very likely lose so long as the Conservatives and the Brexit Party remain united.

The thing is, a majority of the House wants Boris to resign so the Queen can nominate an alternative PM, but a majority of the House may not yet be able to agree on who that alternative PM should be. Asking the Queen to nominate an alternative takes that decision out of their hands and avoids the necessity for rebel conservatives and Lib Dems to voted for Corbyn as PM - something they would very much rather not have to do.

They could then abstain on any votes of no confidence Boris & friends might table in the New PM probably allowing him to survive with a slim majority again not having to vote for Corbyn. MPs must be allowed to preserve their petty hatreds you see, and voting for Corbyn as PM is the kiss of death for any conservative MP (be they ever so rebellious) or the Lib Dems who are trying to set themselves up as the not Corbyn opposition.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 07:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
change of government: "the Queen can nominate an alternative PM, but a majority of the House may not yet be able to agree on who that alternative PM should be [since] Asking the Queen to nominate an alternative takes that decision out of their hands".

Just this evening the common wisdom is reported: "the monarch... is meant to remain above the political fray" unlike a duly, well, elected "government" sworn to secrecy in "dealings" with the monarch. Unless suspect motives of the PM and Privy Council meeting to consult the monarch are detected by paranormal actvities of MPs or journalists, and broadcast "displeasure".

A source quoted by the BBC said "it serves no one's interests" for conversations between the prime minister and the queen to be made public and "it makes it very hard for The Relationship to thrive".


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 20th, 2019 at 04:04:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Risk of no-deal Brexit 'very real', Juncker tells EU lawmakers
EU lawmakers backed a resolution calling for the UK to be granted another extension, after the current one expires on 31 October, to allow more time for London to agree the terms of its withdrawal.

The resolution, passed by a hefty 544 to 126 majority, states that MEPs are open to an extension, though Parliament President David Sassoli said this could only be if the UK held an election or a referendum.

oops. How 'bout that "minority" report, eh.
"If the UK leaves without a deal, all these questions will not disappear - they are still be there and need to be settled prior to a future relationship with the UK," Barnier told EU lawmakers.
[...]
"At the moment it is not Britain leaving the EU, but jobs and businesses leaving Britain," European People's Party (EPP) leader Manfred Weber said to jeers from the Brexit party.

archived EP
European Parliament chooses otherwise, 3 Jul
replaces outgoing conservative president Antonio Tajani
Dealmaker?, 13 Sep
with the support of #Brexit Steering Group, the role of the #EP will remain crucial.
'Hulk' finally meets EU's Juncker, 16 Sep
unveils the Brexit resolution, which would insist that the backstop remain in the deal.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 03:08:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Call me crazy (and I know you will) but I'm thinking that the first item of business for parliament, when it returns from involuntary, unscheduled retreat in the hinterlands, had better not be "scrutiny" of Johnson's "approach to BREXIT".

I'm thinking, it had better be notification for EU Council of the passage of a motion to revise EUWA-2-2019 SCHEDULE FORM LETTER.

The revision shall take into account the "way forward" at page 1 (emended) or page 2 (amended at length) of parliament's imminent process of a tabled resolution to reconsider a "snap election" (previously defeated) stipulating such and such date on or before expiration of the extension of the "A.50(3) period" requested.

Further, its complimentary close had better express the sincerest sense of parliament's commitment to "a way forward" demonstrated by its agreement to dispense with holiday recess.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 04:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is the EU is by Treaty an organisation which deals with the Governments of members states and not their Parliaments or other institutions. The House of Commons can write to the EU all they want, (and probably receive polite acknowledgements), but the EU Council can only grant an extension request received from the Government.

So the trick is for the HOC to trigger a change of government (if Boris will not comply with legal requirement to request A.50 extension) without triggering an election which many independent/rebel/small party MPs would likely lose at this stage.

Basically a second referendum has to happen (to take Brexit off the table) before the opposition can allow a general election to take place - an election they might then win because the Conservatives will have failed to "deliver Brexit" and the Leave vote will then be split between the Conservatives and the Brexit party.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 07:55:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barriers to the EU concluding any treaty are many, but recognition of a "government" representing the state is not one. The EU observes the expansive Artcle 7 VCLT definition if a state representative as does the UN.

Regarding conclusion of A.50, appointment of that agent by the PM of the day, acting instead of HRM, is a constitutional dilemma peculiar to the UK. (Guidance to the work of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Treaty Section) Parliamentary legislation partly precludes the full powers of the PM but not the monarch. Accordingly and irrespective of whomsoever forms HRM "government" and expresses "government" policy or enters agreements made by HRM and another state laid by it before parliament for approval, without HoC approval the agreement will not enter force.

Parliament has agreed multiple times not to approve the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

Parliament has agreed multiple times not to approve a general election or referendum (not binding on parliament by statute in any case). It is to this "anti-democratic" disposition of parliament that my remarks --as well as EU officers--are meant to draw attention of UKNs: The political "majority" of MPs seated express no intention to effect the WA and no "mandate" to enact an alternative to the TEU now or in future. Its purpose is redundant.

There is no "trick" waiting for change of "government" absent change in composition of the HoC willing and able to approve any "government" policy.

"If the UK leaves without a deal, all these questions will not disappear - they are still be there and need to be settled prior to a future relationship with the UK," Barnier told EU lawmakers.
##Democracy is not well understood.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 06:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Johnson given [30 September] EU deadline for ["]Irish backstop["] plan
France's president, Emmanuel Macron, and Finland's prime minister, Antti Rinne, told reporters in Paris that they were both "concerned about what is happening in Britain".
[...]
Rinne said: "We both agreed that it is now time for Boris Johnson to produce his own proposals in writing - if they exist. If no proposals are received by the end of September, then it's over."

A deadline of 30 September would be highly problematic for the prime minister as it falls on the eve of the Conservative party conference [BWAH!], and it remains to be seen whether the EU will stick to the threat.

pennies from heaven
During talks with Juncker and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, the prime minister was shown in detail how allowing Northern Ireland to stick to common EU rules on food and livestock, known as sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), would still fail to avoid checks on the vast majority of goods that cross the Irish border. ... senior EU sources confirmed that Johnson had expressed surprise during the lunch at the complexity of the situation, and that it appeared to have been a "bit of a reality check to hear it from EU officials".

archived
"the responsibility of the United Kingdom"

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 05:10:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU really needs to stop setting deadlines with empty threats if they are not prepared to act decisively if deadlines are not met. It only serves to undermine their credibility and consolidate a reputation for prevarication, procrastination and indecisiveness.

What bubble has BoJo been living in if he has to learn of the complexity of the situation from EU Officials?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 08:02:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It only serves to undermine their credibility

spoken like a died-in-the-wool Tory projecting "blame" on Johnnie Foreigner, who is simultaneously working with Boris Johnson to prevent UK sovereignty by enabling parliament's extension addiction. 'slike Opium trade.

< wipes tears >

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 07:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a universal principle of negotiation - never make a threat you aren't prepared to follow through on - otherwise you are just undermining your own credibility

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 08:20:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't doubt. Quite the violent culture accustomed to coercion.

A threat is no part of negotiation, however. These concepts don't belong in the same sentence.

Perhaps you confuse "bluff" (pretext) with threat?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 10:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, technically, it's not the EU talking, but the president of Finland, Finland currently holding the rotating EU presidency, I'll grant you.

More to the point, I don't see much of a threat in the statement: "it's over" isn't threatening anyone with anything. What would following through consist of in such a situation? Stopping the negotiations by Sept. 30 rather than Oct. 31?

by Bernard on Fri Sep 20th, 2019 at 01:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see the EU stopping negotiations on Sept. 30th. if there is still some prospect of a deal. And if they do keep talking, the Brits will be the first to say "look, see, they always give in in the end. All we have to do is keep stringing them along... and then, as Boris says they'll compromise further at the last minute."

The main point of the BBC's news analysis today was that some progress is being made: for months the EU have been saying the Withdrawal Agreement is closed and can't be renegotiated, and now, here we are renegotiating it.

Of course the EU has always been open to changing the Backstop to a N. Ireland only backstop - even calling it something else or adding some consultative process to it - but these finer points get missed in what passes for news analysis on the BBC these days.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 20th, 2019 at 02:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank, your intuition about NI status was correct, if not politic, from the beginning. Eurotrib enjoyed some laughs at the expense of Hong Kong SAR, pirate colony past and present, until T. May went full-unionist-retard.

The salient lesson is, do not negotiate with incoherent persons.

The EU has attempted simply to communicate (algebra, property of numbers) terms of an agreement with the tree from which the most illiterate, ignorant, and litigious apple on the planet has fallen. I know whereof I speak.

Now it is time to walk away and wish UK a speedy recovery. I might have mentioned.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Sep 20th, 2019 at 09:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's becoming way too subtle for many Continentals who are not following the subtleties of the British political debate closely enough. In the end, is it really going to make a difference?

If De Pfeffle & Cummings really think that the EU27 will cave in at the last minute, whatever Rinne says isn't going to change their mind.

by Bernard on Sat Sep 21st, 2019 at 07:41:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. UK has been negotiating with itself since Cameron opened his big, fat referendum campaign.
  2. EU concluded negotiation of the WA 17 Nov 2018 (with UK 11 Mar 2019). Much denial from "stakeholders" ensued when EU revised the IE-NI Protocol specifically to help T. May secure parliamentary approval for "meaningful vote" No. n+1 and despite EC assurances thereafter that negotiation of the WA is over. So UK continues to fish IE-NI Protocol negotiation with stale "alternative arrangements" bait --2017 "backstop" options.
  3. Art. 50 promises (I think now, this is the word some people have been avoiding) secession of the notifying party in the event of "no deal" or no unanimously agreed "A.30(3) extension period". Treaty qua contract: What consideration have the consenting parties to TEU agreed? ##Rule of law is not well understood.
  4. DICTION CORNER: to negotiate, to come to terms or reach an agreement; independent clauses. So. Witness, still, UK negotiating with itself "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements" and words of encouragement to UK from the EU gallery to fulfill its promise.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 20th, 2019 at 08:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by asdf on Thu Sep 19th, 2019 at 07:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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