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The political way forward would seem to be:

  1. Put together asap an agreement on a caretaker, no-deal-avoiding government, along clear lines as to what major policies would be pursued (beyond requesting an A50 extension), whether Corbyn heads it or not

  2. Parliament votes no confidence in Blow-Job.

  3. This might be unprecedented, but the UK is in uncharted territory anyway: Parliament votes confidence in the new candidate government and petitions HRM to call on its leader to replace Bojo.

  4. After the episode of Boris's advice to the Queen to give assent to an illegal act, his credit with the Palace will be next to nil. Advising the Queen once again to flout the wishes of Parliament is simply unlikely to work.

  5. Pfeffle still wants to hang on? Possession may be nine-tenths of the law concerning property, not concerning the holding of a Crown office. In theory (which might become practise) the Queen can fire him on the grounds that Parliament wants him out and has proposed an alternative with a majority.

Agreed, that last point is uncertain and Boris might well try to defy the judicial and legislative branches in the name of the will of the people that he embodies. As I think I've already said a few times, he will need the army on his side if he wants to try that.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 05:36:15 PM EST
Agreed on all points except #1. Admittedly the Supreme Court exceeded my low expectations, but my expectations of the HOC are even lower. I doubt a majority would agree to Corbyn as Prime Minister, and I can see no reason why he (or the Labour Party) would agree to anyone else. Perhaps they will surprise me and get their act together.

But I think my scenario, whereby the HOC vote no confidence in Boris and demand his resignation/removal by the Queen without naming a replacement may be slightly more likely. Without a clear indication to the contrary, any choice by HRH other than Corbyn would be completely arbitrary and capricious as no opposition figure can command more than derisory support without his say so.

If the Tories then call a VONC in PM Corbyn, he can survive even if a few of his diehard opponents abstain - crucially at least until an A.50 extension is obtained, presumably conditional on the UK organising a "democratic event". So if you were a ChangeUK or dissident Tory MP which would you prefer - a general election or a second referendum?

Crucially they can argue that a general election could just produce another hung parliament whereas a referendum guarantees a decisive result.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:07:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the problem with 1? I mean, obviously, a huge chunk of MPs fear Corbyn as an Evil Socialist. But with everything that's happened, I'd have thought they'd have figured out by now that socialism requires legislation, so they could always not vote for it, and have Corbyn as a dangling, impotent PM able to do only what they let him. Just like Johnson, only more agreeable to their will.
by IdiotSavant on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 11:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The media, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats do not want to let Corbyn near power, even if closely circumscribed, lest getting to know him as a leader might legitimize him in the publie eye.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 03:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:"So if you were a ChangeUK or dissident Tory MP which would you prefer - a general election or a second referendum?"

I will ask the same question of Labour. My surmise WAS that they would first hold a second referendum, then an election. But today I read in the Guardian that Corbyn wants an election, with the new government to organize a referendum.

It seems to me that a caretaker government could organize a referendum and then let the general election be held in the light of the decision of the second referendum. The problem is timing and weather, and, in any case, there is likely only time for one election before Jan 31, 2020.

Were the second referendum to favor Remain the interim government could  then formally withdraw the Article 50 request and schedule a general election as early as seems prudent next spring. Were the referendum to favor Leave the interim government could negotiate the best deal it could for an orderly exit, sign the agreement and then call an election.

The above described process can thus guarantee an orderly process in either eventuality and avoid a 'no deal' Brexit. If a general election is called before a second referendum it will be up to the voters as to whether there might still be a no deal Brexit. If they want that they can vote for the Leave Tories and Boris has shown he is happy to crash out of the EU.

I would like to hear the opinions of those more familiar with the UK and UK politics.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 08:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal within 3 months and hold a second referendum to give voters a choice between that and Remain within 6 months. (He did not specify whether that Labour government would be formed after an election or following a VONC in Boris in the present Parliament).

This ties in with my expected timetable that a caretaker  (Labour or national unity) government would negotiate a Brexit deal by the end of the currently suggested A.50 extension to end January with the referendum held during a further 3 months extension in April.

A general election would then follow shortly after the second referendum.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 09:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal

In other words, he is a much of a liar as Johnson?

by asdf on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Credible means something different to Corbyn than it does to Johnson. Corbyn understands what the EU have to secure. Johnson assumes he can get anything he wants or just crash out. If you consider a crash out acceptable I guess that is a credible way to exit. But the Brexiteers have not been able to sell anything they have negotiated to Parliament.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 12:01:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Credible for Labour means a N. Ireland only backstop and a much closer relationship to the Customs Union and Single market sketched out in the accompanying Political Declaration. The EU (and Ireland) don't have a problem with this.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 11:01:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the UK will, because it makes the whole thing completely pointless and more or less turns the EU into the sort of undemocratic overload beloved of Brexiteer fantasy and conspiracy theory.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 12:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Every Brexit deal you can think off is inferior to actual membership... so change there...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, but this one has the disadvantage of making a lot of the nonsense talked by Brexiteers true.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They don't care about N. Ireland and the political declaration is non-binding anyway. Some are already talking about using any deal as just a stepping stone to a "clean break" later on - and using Ireland as an example - whereby Ireland got a v. partial independence (less N. Ireland, Treaty Ports, land annuities) in 1922 and then became fully independent and out of the Commonwealth in 1948. Some are even saying they would vote for May's deal as is if it were brought back before the Commons. Expectations have gradually become lower and lower...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal

Has he run this by the EU?

I am given to understand they have something to do with Brexit negotiations.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 03:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There presently may be no means for Corbyn to 'run something by the EU'. Were top EU officials to discuss an alternate deal with Corbyn would that not be considered 'meddling in the affairs of a member nation?'

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doubtless. Corbyn might try very informal behind-the-scenes discussions with people who in now way officially represent the EU. Just to get some reactions, some advice.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:46:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with that? Isn't that how Berlusconi was removed?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 08:39:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn, like all UK pols, continues to subscribe to the UK common wisdom that Britain is the centre of the universe.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe that corbyn has been meeting with senior people at the EU since the whole sorry process started and has discussed borad outlines of what a Labour brexit deal would look like that has received broad support in Brussels. Largely cos it's more or less what the EU expected in the wake of the vote cos it's in line with what Vote Leave were saying about the shape of the deal.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never saw Corbyn as an 007 type. Because secretly meeting senior EU officials (in London? Brussels?) without the fact becoming known all over media and social networks and fueling massive Tory outrage about the Opposition undercutting HM Gov's official negotiations and bringing down the deal they were about to conclude and on and on and on... would really call for impressive espionage savvy.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps some less than senior members of the EU have met with Corbyn in the UK, quietly?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 05:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's been conducted quite openly. but the press have absolutely no interest in Corbyn behaving competently.

So, unless they can tie him to soviet spyiing, or total inventions about alleged anti-semitism in their own minds then they're not gonna say anything.

Oh look, here's another girlfriend of Boris...con't p94

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 05:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'Streuth, 'tis true, next time I'll check before snarking. He even met with Michel Barnier (who was at pains to say he wasn't negotiating with Corbyn). It is in the media, in fact. It was a year ago almost to the day.

Trouble with Corbyn is he doesn't have blonde girlfriends with big tits. And he's not 007.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 06:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah. I think we can assume Barnier showed him his old UK red line step function graph. I doubt Corbyn can have gotten any promises worth printing though. All timeline issues move back to the Council.
by generic on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 06:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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