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UK acquired de facto third-country status viz. the EU on 29 March 2019 by having failed any negotiated withdrawal agreement with EU per A.50(3). "A.50(3) period" extension is a temporary remedy to (injunction, interdict, stay of) de jure UK third-country status. UK recourse to TEU is dependent on EU agreement to extension of the "A.50(3) period" or on UK revoking A.50(2) instead of approving the negotiated WA.

Were parliament to approve the WA, the WA is time limited, not permanent. On the exit date 31 Dec 2020 UK acquires third-country status.

EU public statements deny any intention to agree another WA, Ireland Protocol inclusive. Therefore, the basis of EU-UK negotiation currently is UK exit strategy demonstrating the extent of UK compliance with existing EURLEX regulation and implementation.

"can": EU public statements confirm willingness to  review UK exit strategy. UK parliament can approve the negotiated WA. UK can proffer consideration of customs plans and implementation for EU extension of "A.50(3) period". UK cannot proffer consideration of an customs regime without approval by UK parliament.

UK cannot effect unilateral approval of any "A.50(3) period". UK cannot decline agreement to any "A.50(3) period" without parliamentary approval. EU can decline agreement of "A.50(3) period" for any reason.

"must": UK and EU negotiated agreements must conform to TEU, VCLT, and GFA terms of contracting parties. EU public statements confirm that UK exit strategy must satisfy minimum obligations of GFA signatories in perpetuity. UK may not erect barriers to movement of goods, capital, and people between NI and IE.
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Because Corbyn cannot or may not guarantee UK agreement with the WA or any EU regulation for any period of time without approval of parliament, his political status --like May's and Johnson's-- is irrelevant to EU decision to (dis)continue "A.50 period". UK and EU horizons diverged 29 Mar 2019.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:32:25 AM EST
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EU can decline agreement of "A.50(3) period" for any reason.

Sure, the EU can refuse to approve a future agreement. And the Uk can refuse to approve a future agreement. In both cases, the UK reverts to third country status. But "everybody" says that a future agreement can be reached.

Seems to me that the UK refusing a WA with a backstop is equivalent to the UK saying that a suitable future agreement cannot actually be reached, in which case it might as well be a no-agreement withdrawal right now.

by asdf on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:47:23 AM EST
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UK refusing a WA with a backstop is equivalent to the UK saying that a suitable future agreement cannot actually be reached
The WA is the "backstop" to "no deal" crash, hard landing, cliff edge "accident", wtf. A 21-month Safe Space (financial "certainty) to iron out incompetence and clear political hurdles to EU trade in force for permanent exit date.

Guardian poll smoke FWIW perception. Both Con and Lab are running to exit. doh. It's obvious tho' why UK ELECTION 2020 IS A TRAP! with or without the SCHEDULE FORM LETTER.

c'mon

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:05:53 AM EST
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Michel Barnier: Boris Johnson's behaviour has `limited the chance' of a Brexit deal
The EU is now concerned that any concession it could make would be wasted on such an unstable government, which has burned any political goodwill by deploying the language of betrayal and surrender when talking of those who oppose a no-deal Brexit.
read: sympathy for Remainers referendum 2.0, sympathy for Agile® customs dev, but mostly EU approval of "A.50(3) period" extension based on UK parliament approval of WA which is not going to happen

Might as well leave UK to it, meet up on the other side for basic ETA.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:28:08 AM EST
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by Bernard on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:23:32 PM EST
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Possibly the funniest letters ever
by asdf on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:58:41 PM EST
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are you mental? As we mentioned in previous letters to you and your predecessors, we believe that the Withdrawal Agreement is the best way to protect citizens and businesses. Every issue raised in your letter-from trade in goods to citizens' rights and data flows-has already been addressed comprehensively in the Withdrawal Agreement. There is no other way to achieve all the benefits that the Withdrawal Agreement provides....

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 04:10:58 PM EST
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OpEd | Johnson is desperate for an election. So why would his Opponents give him one?
Denis MacShane is the UK's former Minister of Europe, and a former Labour MP.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:58:40 AM EST
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This is my opinion also:
Holding an election solves little. Johnson may win or as the UK's leading poll guru Sir John Curtice points out a more likely outcome is another hung parliament. Johnson and any other minority government prime minister would go to Brussels unable to put anything through the Commons.

The EU settled policy of not accepting British access to the Single Market without respect for its laws and of defending peace in Ireland would not change just because the UK held an election.

Far better would be to insist that the British people are asked again sometime during the next six months. There are so many new facts, new voters, and a new understanding of what Brexit entails. There were 52 million voting age citizens in June 2016. 17.4 million voted for Brexit. 34.6 million did not. They cannot be written out of democracy.


To properly stake The Vampire Boris Parliament must form a new government well before October 31, seek and obtain an extension, call a second referendum and campaign so that the public knows the consequences. If the second referendum is for Remain then withdraw the Article 50 Letter and hold new elections at an appropriate time.

If the second referendum is for Leave then at least it will have been an informed decision and there will be time to negotiate a forthcoming Brexit on the best terms available, even if that is May's deal. Then hold new elections. The danger still remains that careerists might scuttle a new election so as to hold on to office as long as possible.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:00:11 PM EST
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