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Part of me feels the EU is responding so mildly because they just can't bring themselves to take Boris and his threats very seriously. Part of me feels the EU doesn't quite appreciate how much the EU is undermining the EU's whole raison d'etre and system of legitimacy. This still has the potential to go pear shaped in a big way unless clear and decisive action is taken.
For Ireland, 50% WTO tariffs on our beef and agricultural products puts the whole industry (and rural Ireland) in jeopardy. I do hope someone, somewhere, has a plan to deal with the fall-out, but I'm not seeing much evidence of it. After all it shouldn't be too difficult to model the economic effects of WTO rules and develop a counter-strategy.
So while I appreciate the tactical reasons for the EU's response, I'm not quite sure what the strategy is. Index of Frank's Diaries
EU may have suspected Mr. Johnson to negotiate in bad faith, or come up with every possible kind of shenanigans, but there's not much a consensus based organization of 27 members can do against a charlatan who insists on playing chess on a backgammon board while making up rules on the fly.
Pretty much the only thing Commission can do at the moment is to try to salvage the Good Friday Agreement. Sticking to legal issues and releasing the legions of lawyers is their only tool for now.
Maybe, if the 27 came up with short and long term strategies they could agree upon, and nominated a Commissar of Brexit to implement it in close co-operation with Ireland and Netherlands the EU response could be more pro-active and on a wider spectrum.
Maybe even a parliament with some simile of power in actual running of the EU could have an effect here, too.
By june there will be nobody left in the country who will admit to having supported brexit, but will be detectable for their red-faced apoplexy that the EU won't immediately have us back
Nonsense. Brexit is done and was a great success. Then the EU started an entirely unprovoked trade war. No reasoning with those continentals.
As Barnier puts it:
🇪🇺🇬🇧 We will continue to maintain a calm and respectful attitude & we will remain united and determined until the end of these negotiations.My statement following this week's round of negotiations: https://t.co/gUhAP9Zu4g— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 2, 2020
🇪🇺🇬🇧 We will continue to maintain a calm and respectful attitude & we will remain united and determined until the end of these negotiations.My statement following this week's round of negotiations: https://t.co/gUhAP9Zu4g
This said, the lack of audible noise from the EU officials and member countries does not mean they are not preparing for a no-deal come January 1. I even suspect that many EU countries preparedness plans are more advanced than the UK's "administration". Showing any hint of WTO or punitive tarifs on UK exports next year will only help the Brexiters as casting the EU even further into the villain's role. Even though everybody should be well aware that's exactly what will happen in three month's time.
What happens if there's no Brexit trade deal?
Tariffs How bad could it be? 💥💥💥💥💥 What happens immediately? Free trade between the EU and U.K. ends on January 1, 2021 -- and both sides fall back on World Trade Organization terms. The U.K. has set out its Global Tariff Schedule for imports from the EU (as well as all other nations it has no trade deal with) and would be subject to the EU Common External Tariff for exports to the EU. The administrative burden of tariffs, in addition to new customs checks, risks having an impact on food supplies -- in particular those heading to the EU, because firms importing goods to Britain will be able to defer tariff payments and some customs administration for the first six months. The additional costs of tariffs and delays will likely create problems for companies, supply chains and retailers in almost every sector of the economy. Prices in shops will inevitably rise as a result, and some businesses could go bust.
How bad could it be? 💥💥💥💥💥
What happens immediately?
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