Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
My guess is that the EU will allow reality to intrude on the UK's intransigance.
If the UK crashes out with no deal, then it immediately imperils the GFA. No US Cogress controlled by the Democrats is gonna look kindly upon that situation.
And that puts the UK in a hard place every which way. No deal with the EU, no deal with the US and a deteriorating relationship with China.
There aren't really too many other places to go that replace all that trade. Which means that everything is going to start getting expensive on January 1st. JIT delivery schedules are going to crash. Hard. Bringing perishables into the UK is going to be difficult moving towards impossible.
Sterling is going to tank as both the City trade and import/export businesses collapse.
All of which is going to drive up costs in a sub-Weimar way.
I imagine that, unless boris has a cunning plan, he (or his successor, will crawl to Brussels on their bellies sometime in May.
By june there will be nobody left in the country who will admit to having supported brexit, but will be detectable for their red-faced apoplexy that the EU won't immediately have us back

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 01:45:58 PM EST
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