Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Part of me feels the EU is responding so mildly because they just can't bring themselves to take Boris and his threats very seriously. Part of me feels the EU doesn't quite appreciate how much the EU is undermining the EU's whole raison d'etre and system of legitimacy. This still has the potential to go pear shaped in a big way unless clear and decisive action is taken.

As I explained elsewhere, the EU cannot do anything other than "going by the book"; and that means starting infringement proceedings at the CJEU and also continuing the negotiations with the UK - certainly not giving B.Johnson an excuse for putting all the blame of a no-deal on the EU breaking the negotiations before the end of the year.

As Barnier puts it:

This said, the lack of audible noise from the EU officials and member countries does not mean they are not preparing for a no-deal come January 1. I even suspect that many EU countries preparedness plans are more advanced than the UK's "administration". Showing any hint of WTO or punitive tarifs on UK exports next year will only help the Brexiters as casting the EU even further into the villain's role. Even though everybody should be well aware that's exactly what will happen in three month's time.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 4th, 2020 at 01:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And speaking of what will happen in case of no deal, Politico.eu tried to have a stab at it:

What happens if there's no Brexit trade deal?


How bad could it be? 💥💥💥💥💥

What happens immediately?

  • Free trade between the EU and U.K. ends on January 1, 2021 -- and both sides fall back on World Trade Organization terms. The U.K. has set out its Global Tariff Schedule for imports from the EU (as well as all other nations it has no trade deal with) and would be subject to the EU Common External Tariff for exports to the EU.

  • The administrative burden of tariffs, in addition to new customs checks, risks having an impact on food supplies -- in particular those heading to the EU, because firms importing goods to Britain will be able to defer tariff payments and some customs administration for the first six months.

  • The additional costs of tariffs and delays will likely create problems for companies, supply chains and retailers in almost every sector of the economy.

  • Prices in shops will inevitably rise as a result, and some businesses could go bust.

  • by Bernard on Mon Oct 5th, 2020 at 08:24:50 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    " importing goods to Britain"
    Do you mean "importing goods from Britain" or "exporting goods from Britain" ?
    by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:53:28 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    That particular section was written by a UK based Politico journalist (as opposed to their Brussels based staff). As a non-native speaker myself, I take it to mean businesses that import goods from the EU into the UK - but I may be wrong.
    by Bernard on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:02:14 PM EST
    [ Parent ]


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