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TBF though, in 2016, afaik, neither Georgia nor Texas were remotely "in play". I do doubt Biden is going to win them - but there is the hope that among older voters the realization has set in that with Trump their actual immediate physical health is on the line. So, Florida is actually in play; so is Pennsylvania; and Michigan/Wisconsin are not givens at all for him. In that sense, I think 538 is close to displaying some form of actual sentiment in the electorate, especially since most pollsters are now trying to correct for the 2016 undercount of certain rural "underweighted" areas. I am more worried about attempts to steal away votes last minute via backdoor handling and voter suppression. The various reports that many early voters are enduring 10+ hours wait to vote is encouraging though.
by Averett on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:08:02 PM EST
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