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What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

It has affected his numbers though?  Not as much as you might think, but it has.

He briefly closed to about a 4-point race in March/April following the rally-round effects of the impeachment trial and the initial Covid response with the shutdowns and CARES Act.

Then, being Trump, he got bored and mad -- over GDP, over Fauci getting better ratings, who knows? -- and began stepping on rakes.  The Covid response went to hell, and he completely botched the response to George Floyd's death, and Biden's lead blew up to a 9- or 10-point affair in summer.

At that point, Biden began hitting the 50s.  Biden's been in the 50s uninterrupted for about five months, which I believe is unprecedented.

The gap then closed to about 7 as the protests calmed down and the conventions went on.

Then Biden clowned him in the debate and he stepped on a few more rakes, and the lead expanded again.  And that's where we are now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall swings of 10-15% within a matter of a couple of months in previous elections as candidates got better known, as undecided made up their minds, or as events unfolded.

The change has let me to surmise that this election is not so much about policy or political opinion - which can change rapidly, but about tribal identification, which rarely does.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally there are pretty wide swings, but a thing to keep in mind is that Trump is an incumbent and Biden is about as well known as a challenger could possibly be.

So the lack of wild swings isn't really surprising.

If Biden wins -- and obviously we still have two weeks -- I think this will actually wind up recorded as a pretty simple story:

"People have never really liked Donald Trump to begin with -- he's never had a net-approval north of zero -- and Trump then fucked-up the Covid response.  George Floyd was then murdered, and the fact that it was such a simple case and all on video shifted the perception of how black people are treated by cops, and Trump then fucked-up his response to that.  Trump continued to say crazy shit.  Trump continued fucking up the Covid response, despite Covid being the most important issue.  Meanwhile, everybody knows who Joe Biden is, and Joe Biden ran on `Y'all aren't excited by me, and that's fair, but he's a fuck-up and I'll fix his fuck-ups.'  And he mostly kept his mouth shut and let Trump hang himself."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if Biden wins, it will be because the voters believe Trump is a buffoon and are exhausted by him, and they look at boring ol' Joe Biden and think, "For the love of god, give me that."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And with expectations so low, how can Biden lose? All he has to do in the next debate is speak softly to camera his standard campaign lines - ignoring both the moderator questions and Trump's attempts to hassle him. Speaking grandly and warmly about bringing people together is what "Presidential" now looks like compared to the ill-mannered Trump.

But I don't trust him enough not to fuck it up...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, honestly, if I'm Biden, I try to bait Trump into getting mad and skipping the debate again.  Then go give speeches in the key swing states.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump craves attention and acknowledgement. The more Biden ignores him, the madder Trump will get.

But yes. Biden can insist Trump wear mask for the debate or that the moderator must switch off Trump's mike when his time his up, and Trump will probably walk away in a huff or try to shout in Biden's ear from close range.

Biden just has to smile paternalistically at him as Trump has a tantrum - as Kamala Harris did, a lot, rather than challenge Pence with logic and facts. It's no longer a debate, not even a discussion. It's a political beauty contest. Who would you prefer to have as the head of your family...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a political beauty contest.

Congratulations!

You are beginning to understand US politics.  It's never a debate - 99.99% of American don't have a fucking clue what a debate is - or a discussion.  It's a joint press conference "moderated" by the intellectually negligible.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another weird thing about 2020.

If you squint your eyes a bit they're both incumbents.  Trump because he is and Biden because of his 8 years as VP to an extremely popular president.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:22:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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