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What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

It has affected his numbers though?  Not as much as you might think, but it has.

He briefly closed to about a 4-point race in March/April following the rally-round effects of the impeachment trial and the initial Covid response with the shutdowns and CARES Act.

Then, being Trump, he got bored and mad -- over GDP, over Fauci getting better ratings, who knows? -- and began stepping on rakes.  The Covid response went to hell, and he completely botched the response to George Floyd's death, and Biden's lead blew up to a 9- or 10-point affair in summer.

At that point, Biden began hitting the 50s.  Biden's been in the 50s uninterrupted for about five months, which I believe is unprecedented.

The gap then closed to about 7 as the protests calmed down and the conventions went on.

Then Biden clowned him in the debate and he stepped on a few more rakes, and the lead expanded again.  And that's where we are now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:52:14 PM EST
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