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As against that, if Biden loses Wisconsin  (+6.8%, 88%), Nevada (+7%, 87%) or Michigan (+7.9%, 92%), he is in deep trouble.

I mean, if Biden loses, or is on track (with a lot of vote in) to lose, any of those, with the possible exception of Nevada, I'm going to bed, because he's not winning in that case.

Also don't think the spread between PA and the national polls is worth much given the dearth of polling in PA recently.  It's looked all year like a roughly 3-point spread.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 04:14:52 PM EST

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