Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
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REUTERSplainin 6 states weekly opinion polls
and
U.S. Election Project total ballots voted, total ballots requested (h/t Oui)

total voters (2018) census, tables

limitations of the data and statistical imaginations
archived "exit polling"

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 06:11:41 PM EST
Fourth Circuit Keeps in Place NC Ballot Deadline Extension
"Because plaintiffs have not established a likelihood of success on the merits--and because, in any event, [precedent requires] that we not intervene at this late stage--we rightly decline to enter an injunction pending appeal."
damn originalists ahh textualists ahh fascists
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 06:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be Patient, [secretaries of state] Say as States Gear Up for Long Ballot Count
Some states, like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Maine, have already begun counting mail-in ballots. But many other states have regulations that prevent election officials from opening a single ballot until the polls close.
How many exactly? Which ones? Don't expect the press corpse to investigate that.
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 07:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to block North Carolina absentee ballot extension,
3 Nov + nine (9) days. RNC wasted a lot of MSM buys on attys. Sad.
by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 12:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
California AG Asks Court to Intervene in Ballot Box Fight With State GOP

"Our work to ensure that all voters have confidence that their vote will count moves forward. To the extent that unauthorized ballot drop boxes are redeployed, our investigation is ongoing and we will act where necessary. We ask all Californians: if you see something, say something. It's going to take all of us working together to stand up for our right to vote and ensure a free and fair election."
Phew! "Demographic" descriptions of these outlaws will have to wait for paranormal APsplainin.
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 07:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We don't speculate': How AP counts votes and calls races
"Shortly before polls close, roughly 4,000 stringers -- temporary freelancers -- arrive at county election offices."
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:45:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Supreme Court Allows [AL secretary of state] to Block Curbside Voting
application for stay of US district ct order, pending plaintiff Howard Porter, et al's appeal to 11th cir
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 05:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6th Cir denies emergency injunction of ancient voter-transportation law enforcement
As described above, the legislature's likelihood of success on appeal is high. We now
consider the remaining factors relevant to granting a stay. The harm to the legislature without a
stay would be irreparable: November 3, 2020, will only happen once, and the legislature would
lose its ability to regulate paid voter transportation for that election. Although prosecutions for
illicit vote-buying would still be possible, enforcement would be far more difficult, requiring
proof of a quid pro quo. And any vote-hauling [1895 act] fraud that does occur would still have affected
the election itself.
RNC, MI legislature (appellants) v. Priorities U.S.A. et al.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 06:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
statisticians
19th Century Polling Laws to Stop Parties Kidnapping Voters May Be Inadequate This Time
"This is why we now have secret, government-printed ballots rather than party-provided ballots" a/k/a "straight-line" ballots, hmm

50 million people have already voted. Here's how that compares with past elections.
All presidential elections in the last 50 years, ranked by highest eligible voter turnout rate (61.65%)

by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:31:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania Supreme Court says ballots can't be rejected based on signature comparisons, unanimous opinion
"We conclude that the Election Code does not authorize or require county election boards to reject absentee or mail-in ballots during the canvassing process based on an analysis of a voter's signature," the state Supreme Court wrote in an opinion signed by six of the seven justices, including five Democrats and one Republican.

The seventh justice, another Republican, concurred with the ruling.

99% certain RNC of PA won't be returning to SCOTUS for a second helping of "no".
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[SCOTUS] leaves in place Pennsylvania's Nov. 6 deadline for return of ["segregated"] ballots
Scalito dissent "acknowledged there was not enough time to hear and decide the challenge by Tuesday"; Anti-RBG reclined; Kavanaugh balked at the plate < wipes tears >
by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 11:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Judge throws out Trump campaign lawsuit against New Jersey's election plans
"Plaintiffs have alleged nothing more than the possibility of future injury to their members," U.S. District Court Judge Michael Shipp wrote in his ruling.
Politico offers alternative "context", because of course a recitation of factual history of Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.'s lawsuit in the opinion is unintelligible to English-language readers.
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Texas appeals court says state may not limit ballot drop-off sites
Texas 3rd Court of Appeals agreed with the lower court that limiting the number of drop boxes would increase the risk that voters could get infected with COVID-19, and would infringe on their right to vote.
the other California v Texass battle for the soul of our bumper sticker
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
late inning wut
Texas High Court [reverses TX 3rd Cir, affirms US 5th Cir] Order Limiting Early Ballot Drop-Off Sites
[Gov.] Abbott's July order extended the early voting period by six days and allowed counties to accept absentee ballot drop-offs for 40 days starting Sept. 19, instead of just on Election Day
[...]
"The Governor's October Proclamation provides Texas voters more ways to vote in the November 3 election than does the Election Code. It does not disenfranchise anyone," the order states.
Abbott v "incensed Democrats in their strongholds of El Paso, Austin, Dallas and Houston"
by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 11:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
["]Tribal Voting["]
Pascua Yaqui denied an emergency preliminary injunction seeking to compel Pima County, AZ, to open an in-person early voting site within the boundaries of its reservation.
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. Supreme Court [denies review of 7th Circuit ruling enjoining] extension in Wisconsin mail-in ballot deadline
In a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge panel of the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked [US district court]'s earlier ruling allowing a six-day extension in the ballot-receipt deadline.
alrighty then. iirc, state or inferior cts have reversed 4/5 ballot count xtnded deadlines.
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. v. WISCONSIN STATE LEGISLATURE, ET AL.
(SWENSON, JILL, ET AL. V. WI STATE LEGISLATURE, ET AL first instance)
APPLICATION TO VACATE STAY, majority rational (JJ. Kavanaugh) for denying DNC review of 7th cir, 26 Oct
This Court has consistently stated that the Constitution principally entrusts politically accountable state legislatures, not unelected federal judges, with the responsibility to address the health and safety of the people during the COVID-19 pandemic.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE, et al. v. DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, et al.
PER CURIAM granting ltd stay of district ct injunction; minority rational (JJ. Kagan) for denying RNC application, 6 Apr
Election officials have spent the past few days establishing procedures and informing voters in accordance with the District Court's deadline. For this Court to upend the process--a day before the April 7 postmark deadline--is sure to confound election officials and voters.

reference, Sheldon Whitehouse Axes of Amicus Briefs
Motion for leave to file amicus brief filed by Election Law Scholars.
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 06:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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