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There's no evidence Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.  He is down 19 in Presidential Approval.  

What little presidential polling evidence we have says Biden will win PA handily.  All the other state wide races have Dems winning.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:47:46 PM EST
Much the same was true in 2016 until the last few days  of the campaign...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I have said many times, Trump won because he got out 2 million voters who would have not passed the likely voter screens, there was a 74% of white vote to total vote, Trump won by ~80,000 votes scattered across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  The most important bit of that is the white vote.  He won't get that this year.  Plus, if Pew Research is accurate, the total white percentage of the vote will fall to 68% and since 2000 the GOP needs it to be 72% or above to win.

I agree we need to be cautious but we also need to understand Trump's 2016 was a winning draw to an inside straight: it happens but that's not how it usually goes.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:05:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong, I think Biden is most likely to win and quite possibly by a landslide. But a 12% chance of a Trump win is not negligible and Biden is quite capable of screwing up in the next debate.

What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

Deep down I wonder is there something deeply authoritarian, misogynistic, racist, narcissistic, and envious in the US psyche, which values material self-aggrandisement above all else and cares little about the damage it does to others.

Something almost Germanic without the transformative reckoning which Hitler and WWII forced on Germany itself. A lot of people seem to admire Trump and wish to emulate him even though they know he is a fraud.

I suppose the declining days of empire where ever thus.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The official US religion isn't Christianity, it's narcissism. It's an institutionally narcissistic and tribal country where you're either a winner - i.e. a rich grifter with a touchy but self-congratulatory sense of entitlement, and more or less overt indifference shading into contempt for others - or a loser.

Winners deserve everything, losers deserve nothing - no humane consideration, and in extreme cases no justice or mercy.

Individual Americans may or may not operate like this, but this morality is absolutely endemic in politics, finance, law, the medical industry, and even in science and academia.

It's even visible on the left. Bill Clinton and Obama both have it, but cover it up by appearing smart and personable in public - even though mostly they operate out of self-interest in private.

Hilary Clinton lost because she couldn't hide it, and there are various democratic creatures - like Feinstein - who don't even try to disguise it.

The next generation - AOC, etc - don't seem quite so badly infected by it, but it's unlikely they don't have it at all.

So Trump was entirely inevitable. But then in many ways he's just a vastly dumber version of Nixon, who personified a previous generation of it.

The last vaguely decent president was Carter, and it's telling that he's considered a weak failure.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most recent Presidents make President Eisenhower look moderate, and Roosevelt truly inspirational. Kamala Harris is pretty ruthless to, but maybe that's a requirement to move up the greasy pole and not representative of a wider demographic.

I remember being shocked 25 years ago when visiting friends of friends on a family holiday in Washington state. They were politically progressive social workers but almost their first question, on hearing our occupations, was "how much do you make?"

In Ireland you would never ask that question, even of close friends, and you certainly wouldn't measure your self-worth or the status of others by it. Indeed flaunting wealth - if you have it - is much frowned upon and there is a cottage industry in quite wealthy individuals "putting on the poor mouth".

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

It has affected his numbers though?  Not as much as you might think, but it has.

He briefly closed to about a 4-point race in March/April following the rally-round effects of the impeachment trial and the initial Covid response with the shutdowns and CARES Act.

Then, being Trump, he got bored and mad -- over GDP, over Fauci getting better ratings, who knows? -- and began stepping on rakes.  The Covid response went to hell, and he completely botched the response to George Floyd's death, and Biden's lead blew up to a 9- or 10-point affair in summer.

At that point, Biden began hitting the 50s.  Biden's been in the 50s uninterrupted for about five months, which I believe is unprecedented.

The gap then closed to about 7 as the protests calmed down and the conventions went on.

Then Biden clowned him in the debate and he stepped on a few more rakes, and the lead expanded again.  And that's where we are now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall swings of 10-15% within a matter of a couple of months in previous elections as candidates got better known, as undecided made up their minds, or as events unfolded.

The change has let me to surmise that this election is not so much about policy or political opinion - which can change rapidly, but about tribal identification, which rarely does.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally there are pretty wide swings, but a thing to keep in mind is that Trump is an incumbent and Biden is about as well known as a challenger could possibly be.

So the lack of wild swings isn't really surprising.

If Biden wins -- and obviously we still have two weeks -- I think this will actually wind up recorded as a pretty simple story:

"People have never really liked Donald Trump to begin with -- he's never had a net-approval north of zero -- and Trump then fucked-up the Covid response.  George Floyd was then murdered, and the fact that it was such a simple case and all on video shifted the perception of how black people are treated by cops, and Trump then fucked-up his response to that.  Trump continued to say crazy shit.  Trump continued fucking up the Covid response, despite Covid being the most important issue.  Meanwhile, everybody knows who Joe Biden is, and Joe Biden ran on `Y'all aren't excited by me, and that's fair, but he's a fuck-up and I'll fix his fuck-ups.'  And he mostly kept his mouth shut and let Trump hang himself."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if Biden wins, it will be because the voters believe Trump is a buffoon and are exhausted by him, and they look at boring ol' Joe Biden and think, "For the love of god, give me that."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And with expectations so low, how can Biden lose? All he has to do in the next debate is speak softly to camera his standard campaign lines - ignoring both the moderator questions and Trump's attempts to hassle him. Speaking grandly and warmly about bringing people together is what "Presidential" now looks like compared to the ill-mannered Trump.

But I don't trust him enough not to fuck it up...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, honestly, if I'm Biden, I try to bait Trump into getting mad and skipping the debate again.  Then go give speeches in the key swing states.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump craves attention and acknowledgement. The more Biden ignores him, the madder Trump will get.

But yes. Biden can insist Trump wear mask for the debate or that the moderator must switch off Trump's mike when his time his up, and Trump will probably walk away in a huff or try to shout in Biden's ear from close range.

Biden just has to smile paternalistically at him as Trump has a tantrum - as Kamala Harris did, a lot, rather than challenge Pence with logic and facts. It's no longer a debate, not even a discussion. It's a political beauty contest. Who would you prefer to have as the head of your family...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a political beauty contest.

Congratulations!

You are beginning to understand US politics.  It's never a debate - 99.99% of American don't have a fucking clue what a debate is - or a discussion.  It's a joint press conference "moderated" by the intellectually negligible.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another weird thing about 2020.

If you squint your eyes a bit they're both incumbents.  Trump because he is and Biden because of his 8 years as VP to an extremely popular president.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:22:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
um ...................................

Deep down I wonder is there something deeply authoritarian, misogynistic, racist, narcissistic, and envious in the US psyche, which values material self-aggrandisement above all else and cares little about the damage it does to others.

got it in one.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 09:28:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
White voters liked seeing their cities in flames? They liked BLM smash and grab from expensive stores?

I think the Kenosha arson and looting coupled with the late and bored response from the Dem Governor gives Wisconsin to Trump. Again.

However, this election is truly Scylla vs Charybdis. The silly meme of Biden being for the working man is a fraud. The "Senator from Citibank" is still the author of the Catfood Commission. If Trump was not such a bizarre loose cannon, the election would be in the bag.

What president do you want? "Yes Minister" Biden or "Fawlty Towers" Trump?  I'm thinking of seeking Italian Citizenship by derivation. My grandfather was an Italian citizen when my father was born in the USA. Too bad I can speak some (High school) German but no Italian. Would EU rules let me live in Germany or Ireland?

by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on who they think lit and fanned the flames.

The EU doesn't determine residency rules. Ask your local embassy. I'm not aware of much in the way of restrictions on US citizens provided you can support yourself.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 10:40:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
TBF though, in 2016, afaik, neither Georgia nor Texas were remotely "in play". I do doubt Biden is going to win them - but there is the hope that among older voters the realization has set in that with Trump their actual immediate physical health is on the line. So, Florida is actually in play; so is Pennsylvania; and Michigan/Wisconsin are not givens at all for him. In that sense, I think 538 is close to displaying some form of actual sentiment in the electorate, especially since most pollsters are now trying to correct for the 2016 undercount of certain rural "underweighted" areas. I am more worried about attempts to steal away votes last minute via backdoor handling and voter suppression. The various reports that many early voters are enduring 10+ hours wait to vote is encouraging though.
by Averett on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Demographic changes have gradually brought them into play over the past few cycles and both could be important in down ticket races, especially as there are two senate elections in Georgia.  However if Biden wins either he will probably have already won by a landslide elsewhere.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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