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Total Early Votes: 42,372,793 * Mail Ballots: 30,472,639 * In-Person Votes: 11,900,154

In states with registration by party

Democrats          9,969,350             52.0
Republicans          5,010,294             26.1
Minor                    108,568              0.6
No Party Affiliation 4,097,440             21.4
TOTAL                 19,185,652             100.0

Thus we have registration figures for 45% of votes cast to date.
Assuming those 45% are representative of the whole country, the total votes cast would be roughly:

Democrats         22,018,000             52.0
Republicans         11,066,000             26.1
Minor                    230,000              0.6
No Party             9,049,000             21.4
TOTAL                 42,372,793             100.0

Assuming party members vote for their party candidate, that means Dems have an 11 Million lead at the moment with 31% of the 2016  turnout in. Polls indicate more independents lean Dem, so let us split the Independent vote 5:4 to Dems, giving them a total 12 million vote lead.

If the turnout is similar to 2016 (138 Million), and the remainder of the vote is split 50:50, this represents a 75M to 63M lead, or a 54.4% to 45.6% win - a margin of 9%, or roughly what the opinion polls are predicting.

So basically Dems need to get 50% of the vote still to come to win by 9 points.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:41:36 AM EST
by Oui on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 06:05:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Electoral college apportionment is not well understood.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 03:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yes it is, but in this post I am only looking at early indicators of initial nationwide trends. There is no electoral model of electoral college apportionment which does not have Biden winning if he has anything like a 9% lead in the popular vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 05:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, right. Hillary won the popular vote.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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