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I now give a 1 in 100 chance of a comprehensive FTA between the EU and UK to come into force next January. Perhaps a 20 in 100 chance of such an agreement ever being reached.

Most likely outcomes are either no trade agreement or a lightweight accord of very limited scope.

RTÉ | Brexit talks: Optimism falters ahead of the tunnel

Diplomats are adamant, however, that it will be made crystal clear to London that entering the famous tunnel and concluding an agreement are entirely contingent on the withdrawal of clauses 42-45 of the Bill.

[...]

By Friday evening, when Michel Barnier briefed member state officials, it was clear there had been no big breakthrough and the tunnel was still some way off.

[...]

Ahead of her phone call today with Boris Johnson, Ursula von der Leyen reportedly told EU leaders that the level-playing field remained a fundamental problem, and that a no deal might even be better than a lopsided deal, with half-baked state aid and level-playing field provisions.

The clock is now truly ticking.



luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 11:26:51 AM EST

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