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"We're Watching an Incumbent Self-Destruct": Polling Guru Who Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Is Betting On Biden

Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. He has a microscopic understanding of what is happening around the country politically. And I sat down with him for Sunday night's episode of Showtime's The Circus, a weekly assessment of the campaign shitshow. Some of our conversation appeared on air; some was left on the cutting-room floor.

After talking with him I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. To use a poker metaphor: In the last election, Trump won by pulling an inside straight to win. This time he'll need nothing short of a royal flush--by pulling an ace from his sleeve.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 09:42:02 PM EST
From the link:

in October his lead has actually gone up as President Trump's handling of COVID--and his own illness--has come under skepticism from seniors. And we've seen the 65-plus vote, in particular, blow wide open. Joe Biden had been ahead by five among seniors for much of the year. Now his lead is more like nine. Keep in mind, Donald Trump carried seniors by five in 2016.

A 14 point shift among the old folks means Trump will lose Florida and Arizona and that's the ballgame.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 09:45:29 PM EST
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After talking with him I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. To use a poker metaphor: In the last election, Trump won by pulling an inside straight to win. This time he'll need nothing short of a royal flush--by pulling an ace from his sleeve.

I hope none of these people actually play poker given their understanding of odds.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 11:16:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If they do I want to be in the game.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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