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Monmouth University rated A+ by 538 dropped a bunch of Georgia polls today.  They have Biden leading by 3.6% with a range of +2 to +5.  

The 270 to Win Pundit Map has Biden at 290 Electoral Votes without any of the toss-up states: Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio..  Those are all states where Biden is competitive.  

For Trump to be re-elected he has to take all the toss-up states and grab some combination of 22 Electoral Votes now polling for Biden.  Not impossible but with suburban voters moving decisively to Democrats it doesn't seem likely.

   

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:17:08 AM EST
Told ya Georgia could wind up interesting. :P

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All right.  You were right, I was wrong.

You do have to admit I had solid reasons for being skeptical.

LA Times:

"Young people in Georgia have expanded their vote by 82% to more than 340,000."

If young Georgians follow the national 70/30 D/R split that right there almost erases Trump's 211,000 margin of victory and the increase in black vote should flip the state to Biden.

You see?  All those shy Biden voters!  :-)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 02:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgia, like Texas, has two things going for it:

The Kids Today and The Wine Moms.

But, unlike Texas, Georgia was only a 5-point kind of race four years ago.  The swing needed isn't as large.

Again, gun-to-my-head, I'm still of the "Trump narrowly holds both" view, but it won't be at all shocking if Biden carries Georgia (and at this point Texas certainly isn't out of the question).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgia more progressive than Florida: Who'd have thunk?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not if you read the two polls today out of Florida.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida latest polls

Interesting ... high volatility ... Floridians hit by Blue hammer?

by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, just a dearth of polls from the high-quality crowd recently.

Biden +8-10 national but only 0-2 in Florida never made much sense to me.

Florida's pretty reliably about R+3 or R+4 vs the popular vote.  I can imagine 5, maybe even 6, because at some point you run into a ceiling, I suspect, but prior to today the polling didn't make much sense to me.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 06:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So yeah, Marist and Monmouth are around what I'd figure.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 06:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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