With 50% of vote counted Jacinda Ardern's Labour is on track to win the first outright majority of any party since New Zealand adopted its current electoral system in 1996 #NZElection2020 pic.twitter.com/CE7RmqHQaw

— Helen Sullivan (@helenrsullivan) October 17, 2020

National had an annus horribilus with several scandals and three leaders in quick succession, and collapsed to a level I can confidently say without looking it up, is their lowest since the party was formed nearly a century ago : 27% and 35 seats.

The ACT party, NZ's hard right, went from 1 to 10 MPs (on 8% of the vote). A natural reaction to National's hopelessness, but a danger for the future. Socially conservative, not overtly racist but extreme neolibs.

The Greens were very junior coalition partners in the outgoing government, and I feared they might get eliminated by the 5% threshold; but it seems that some voters of the left realised that Labour was heading for a landslide and voted to keep them in the game : 7.5% and 10 MPs, up two. This is the first time a minor party has survived coalition without being punished, and bodes well for the future. Also, smart young queer Chloe Swarbrick won my electorate of central Auckland (a crucial insurance policy agains the 5% electoral threshold for the party), and the world is a better place for it.

New Zealand First, not so much a centrist party as a wild-card party, has been wiped out. As its charismatic leader, who has been deputy Prime Minister with both left and right, is 75 and in poor health, this looks like the end, and good riddance.

Ardern is not commiting to a new coalition with the Greens; she's got the numbers to govern alone, and they would be foolish to accept whatever very poor offer she might eventually make. They need to be in opposition. Ardern's actual record is actually pretty poor, and not discernably progressive; her program for the next three years is not going to be any better.

A good wrap-up

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}