Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. | 167 comments (167 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Analytic Note (4.00 / 3)

In 2016 Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney's 2012 total. That means 2 million votes that wouldn't have passed the Likely Voter polling screens.

That's not happening this year. Trump doesn't have a group of new voters to bring in AND he has lost significant numbers of his 2016 voters, notably suburban white women.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 04:02:10 PM EST

Re: Analytic Note (4.00 / 4)

If Trump doesn't up his vote total from 2016, Biden's going to turn him into mulch.

I think he will though, just because everybody's amped-up for this one.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:26:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Analytic Note (4.00 / 2)

There's nobody left for Trump to mobilize and he's lost swathes of voters.

At best he'll get ~60 million. I wouldn't be surprised if he got much less than that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Total number doesn't count (none / 0)

He could get zero votes in California, New York, Illinois, and Oregon and still win. The so-called Purple States are the only ones that count.

by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 0)

100% accurate but the topic was total vote.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:30:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 0)

Total vote means absolutely nothing.

by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:36:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 1)

Nate Silver's model shows a non-trivial chance of Trump winning the college despite losing the popular vote by 5%.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 0)

About a 2% chance if he lost the popular vote by 5+:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:23:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (4.00 / 2)

Trump rips `FiveThirtyEight' pollster for 2020 election prediction

The pollster "FiveThirtyEight" gave Trump a 14 percent chance of winning the election and Biden a 86 percent chance, citing 40,000 simulations it ran of the November contest.
In 2016, the polling site said Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning and Trump had a 28.6 percent chance.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 06:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 1)

Use this as a guideline: 55% voter turnout means Rethuglicans win; 60% turnout means Dems win; 65% means Dems win big; 70% means Rethuglican Party is crushed.

by rifek on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Total number doesn't count (none / 1)

FWIW:

137,143,218 2016 total votes
131,473,705 2008 total votes
last 50 years

2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)

Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)

George W. Bush v John Kerry (60.1%)

Barack Obama v Mitt Romney (58.6%)

Bill Clinton v George W. H. Bush (58.1%)

Richard Nixon v George McGovern (56.2%)

Ronald Reagan v Walter Mondale (55.2%)

Jimmy Carter v Gerald Ford (54.8%)

Ronald Reagan v Jimmy Carter (54.2%)

George W. Bush v Al Gore (54.2%)

George H. W. Bush v Michael Dukakis (52.8%)

Bill Clinton v Bob Dole (51.7%)

Electoral college is not well understood.

by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 11:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

< wipes tears > (none / 1)

Over a Week Before Election, Early Voting Surpasses 2016 Level
62M, or "44% of of the total votes counted in the last presidential election". m'k.

I blame IRAN, possibly RUSSIA! or QNON. Mostly weed.

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

< wipes tears > (none / 1)

WA, MT, ID, NV, CA, WY, CO, UT, MN, WI, IA, IL, MI, MD, VT, DC, CT, NH, ME: 19 unrestricted

It's okay if you forgot to register to vote online. Maryland is one of 21 states with same day registration.

Even if you don't have an ID with you at the voting center, officials are still required to give you a provisional ballot.https://t.co/mhuykJfdsL @BaltimoreBrew
— ian round (@raniound) October 26, 2020

archived "exit polling"

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:52:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. | 167 comments (167 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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