Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. | 167 comments (167 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (4.00 / 3)

It seemed to me that the race was frozen in place from the conventions until the first debate. Biden had a slight, precarious lead of a few points both in the overall popular vote and in battleground states. It was hard to tell if the difference was within the margin of error.

That changed after Trump's disastrous performance in the first debate and his subsequent hospitalization for COVID, although this did not become at all clear until yesterday, October 6. The debate and the hospitalization were two quick blows to Trump's reelection chances and they seem likely, at this point, to also secure the Senate for the Democrats.

But four weeks remains an eternity. Who knows what will happen between now and November 3, or, indeed, after November 3, even if Biden wins the election going away?

Interesting times indeed.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 05:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (none / 1)

I don't think his lead was slight or precarious. Biden's basically ranged from "winning soundly if unspectacularly" to "completely beating Trump's ass" since...basically 2017 aside from a brief period post-impeachment/initial rally-round on Covid.

The lead wasn't really entirely comfortable, of course, in that I think we have reason to believe WI and PA are leaning a couple points more Republican than the country as a whole. (Michigan all year seems to have snapped-back to being around the national polls.)

But Biden has basically led by at minimum a decent margin the whole way.

The disaster, if there is one and it isn't just a function of non-response bias, seems to be Trump's Covid diagnosis and subsequent behavior. The immediate post-debate polling showed a pretty modest bump for Unc (maybe a point or so).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (none / 1)

If your candidate is within or close to the margin of error in large, important battleground states that is certainly a concern. And that was the case with Biden for most of the summer in PA, MI and WI. Whether it is precarious is a matter of semantics. If he is beyond the margin of error it is easier to relax.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (none / 1)

So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.

And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness. Post debate bounces are often temporary, but this one was copper-fastened by his illness and the return of almost 100% focus on the pandemic - a strong issue for voters and Democrats.

It has also moved the focus away from the economy, which is a strong issue for Republicans and the only major issue on which Trump regularly outscores Biden. Silver has an article up querying why Trump has stopped negotiations on Stimulus - it helped his numbers big time last time. No doubt he will try to bribe voters again with a personalised cheque...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 07:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (4.00 / 3)

It's not all about what Trump does. Recently Biden's ads have had less about "I'm not Trump/Orange man bad" and more about health care, education, wages and jobs.

You know, the stuff that the voters are actually interested in because they lack all of those.

Everyone knows Biden is never going to deliver any (people are not corporations), but at least his campaign is finally making the motions of giving an excuse for people left of Reagan to hold their nose and vote Biden.

by pelgus on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 08:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. (none / 0)

So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.
And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness.

No.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:06:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats. | 167 comments (167 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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