Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I'd ignore the battleground average for now.  There's a bit of a dearth of (high-quality) state polling at the moment.  

The "battlegrounds" this year also include states like Texas and Georgia, so in addition to the changes to polling methodology (now weighting by education), it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

Both FiveThirtyEight and RCP have Biden currently leading all swing states except Texas and leading by 5+ (nearly 6) in the Big 3 (WI/MI/PA).

Still time for things to change obviously.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 10:27:13 AM EST
The Real Clear politics definition of Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016) is: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona - and doesn't include new battleground states like Ga and TX. While these widen the playing field where Biden is competitive I wouldn't want to be relying on them as potential tipping point states.

Nate Silver currently has Pennsylvania as the tipping point state and NE2, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are all tending blue on top of that before you get to Georgia, ME2, Iowa and Texas as potential swing states. We're in landslide territory if any of the last four turn blue.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 11:08:25 AM EST
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