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Now the deaths are rolling in. 15 people dead in a Wolfsburg nursing home. The president of the RKI saying "capacity may be exceeded". I expect thousands to die.

At the other end of the rainbow, the Euro problem will come to a head. I think this will be it.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sun Mar 29th, 2020 at 08:15:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At least those deaths were all contained in one space with limited uncontrolled access and egress, so perhaps the knock-on further infections elsewhere will be less. Once Covid-19 gains access to a care home, all within it are at risk, depending on their age and condition.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 29th, 2020 at 10:04:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As for the Euro, we shall see. At the moment this is still a public health crisis which is not a primary EU competency. If anything, it argues for greater EU competency and cohesion in health care - something which may be easier to achieve with the UK out.

As for the economic/financial consequences, it all depends on how long the crisis lasts. A lot of debt will be added to national balance sheets - the EU has only a small budget of its own, and is statute barred from  borrowing, so it cannot magic up large resources without taking from one member state to give to others. (A v. difficult thing to do when all members are nursing big losses and deficits).

But provided the ECB allows borrowing on a massive scale, and keeps interest rates near zero, those balance sheet numbers need not have devastating impacts on the real economy. I realise that is a big proviso...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 29th, 2020 at 10:16:31 PM EST
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