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When gambling, think probability.
When hedging, think plausibility.
When preparing, think possibility.
When this fails, stop thinking. Just survive.

Naive probabilism is the (naive) view, held by many technocrats and academics, that all rational thought boils down to probability calculations. This viewpoint is behind the obsession with `data-driven methods' that has overtaken the hard sciences, soft sciences, pseudosciences and non-sciences. It has infiltrated politics, society and business. It's the workhorse of formal epistemology, decision theory and behavioral economics. Because it is mostly applied in low or no-stakes academic investigations and philosophical meandering, few have noticed its many flaws. Real world applications of naive probabilism, however, pose disproportionate risks which scale exponentially with the stakes, ranging from harmless (and also helpless) in many academic contexts to destructive in the most extreme events (war, pandemic). The 2019--2020 coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) is a living example of the dire consequences of such probabilistic naiveté.

by Oui on Mon Mar 30th, 2020 at 10:04:13 PM EST

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