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How does the Wuhan coronavirus compare to seasonal flu? | ITV - Feb. 6, 2020 |

Coronavirus: awaiting the cavalry

But, in fact, it now transpires that the UK government has gone for neither of those options. The clue to this came with last weekend's article which recorded the failure of a pandemic test run carried out three years ago, under the title "Exercise Cygnus".

What emerged from the article is that, even though the system failed, no amendments were made to the strategic roadmap for a future pandemic, with the last update having been carried out in 2014. The actual working model for the current Covid-19 epidemic, therefore, is the Pandemic Influenza Response Plan augmented by the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Framework, both published by Public Health England in August 2014.

And in those pages is the previously "opaque" reason why Public Health England so precipitously abandoned the "test and trace" programme, an action which has attracted so much criticism.

Results Exercise Cygnus Kept Secret

by Oui on Wed Apr 1st, 2020 at 06:01:44 PM EST
an interesting detail about clinical treatment (lagging indicator), assumed to be true for sake of argument

recovery ratios for NE and UK are ... alarming: Given my Robert's rule of thumb of vent efficacy, similarity of NE, UK pathways to hospitalization, I imagine that patients' ICU arrives too late to reverse ARD w/Rx course of treatment.

by Cat on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 12:24:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's really because they are putting people on life support because they can (in UK or NDL), rather than because there's any hope.
You would have to include numbers of patients dying in hospital without getting intensive care, to see this clearly.

It seems clear (from real-life narratives) that there are a lot of people, mostly elderly with pre-existing conditions, who are not going to survive even if they got onto life support much earlier. I suspect that in Norway, even given the small sample, they are making more rational clinical décisions in that respect.

This may change if an effective treatment turns up.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 10:57:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
viral (eg. COVID19) and bacterial pneumonia treatment almost always entails mechanical respiration, regardless of patient age. CPAP, BiPAP indicated if spontaneous breathing in distress; ventilator, if not, indicating advanced tissue damage, regardless of age and comorbid diseased organs. The last complicates Rx chemistry combinations even in optimal clinical settings. "The numbers" are not all that relevant to comprehending the actual limitations of medical "arts" and why, in fact, physicians cannot or should not entertain reflections on indefinite "life support" to salve the consciences of the living.

Suburban Hospital, Bethesda, MD allowed my brother one week to grieve in ICU. A year ago.

So here we are. My understanding is, presses have devoted much interest in honoring the aged, condemning DNRs, and consoling the innocence of bereaved, because time is short, and there is no "effective treatment" for that.

by Cat on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 12:30:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
archived comorbid disease, Causes of death statistics (2017)
by Cat on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 05:34:51 PM EST
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Why are alcohol abuse and drug dependence included, but tobacco use not?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 05:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Top 3.

I guess, you missed my micro-monograph on CoD, "Classification and its Consequences".

Let's ASSUME the detail drug and alcohol "abuse"/"dependence" is a count of ODs. Otherwise, engrossed; chronic intoxication being the root of pathology to irreversible organ failure, final destination.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 06:42:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like men draw the short straw on everything except breast cancer...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 05:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Alzheimer's, which for some reason is not in the chart.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 05:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, look. Organ failure.
January-February 2013 issue of Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics found that difficulty swallowing may in turn increase the risk for "aspiration pneumonia," a common cause of death among people with Alzheimer's, due to food and liquids accidentally getting into the airways in the lungs.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 06:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This trend is a troubling indicator. Too many complicating factors arising from experimental Rx + vent utilization >4 days (>2 day VAP risk + COVID) + poor PPE protocols. Hoping there's better "experience-based" knowledge sharing than the trash turned up by MSM.
by Cat on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 11:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doctors across NYC share the harrowing reality of caring for oxygen-starved coronavirus patients as equipment runs short
SUNY Downstate Medical Center, in Brooklyn ...The ICU, which typically has 10 beds, has expanded into four additional units.
[...]
Northwell Health System, which operates 23 hospitals in New York, was up to 3,000 COVID patients as of Friday morning, from 1,800 or so a week ago. Already, 500 are on ventilators.
[...]
Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn's Borough Park neighborhood, Dr. Patrick Borgen said the hospital's anticipating needing 400 ICU beds. As of Tuesday, it had 150.
[...]
On Friday, [Cuomo] signed an executive order empowering the National Guard to take ventilators and other protective equipment from private [!] hospitals and other companies and give them to hospitals in need.
[...]
At SUNY Downstate, Daniel said, she's intubating patients at the rate of one per hour. Amid the pandemic, she might do eight [!] in a shift, up from one or two.
plan B: CPAP, BiPAP face masks O2 + aerosol Rx delivery alt to PICC line (IV)
Now, instead of progressing quickly to ventilators, doctors at Maimonides are relying more on high-flow oxygen therapy, with the hope that by keeping patients breathing on their own ["spontaneous respiration"] and able to move, they might be able to keep their lungs functioning better.
Not only that, vent equip and intubated patients need constant surveillance and hygiene (trach suction mucus, saliva) to retard bacterial growth seeping from upper to lower respiratory tract->lungs ("Double pneumonia" as the old folks call it). so yeah, Duplicate these "trade offs" worldwide.

Story further glosses release criteria/orders, ie. self-admin of respiratory Rx, rehabilitation

by Cat on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 11:58:09 PM EST
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